Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho likely to gain House seats after 2030 census

[In It to Win It]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-florida-arizona-idaho-likely-191726904.html

Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho are likely to gain House seats after the 2030 census, according to consulting firm Election Data Services.

A gain of two congressional seats would be seen in Texas and Florida, and one seat each in Arizona and Idaho, if congressional reapportionment were being ”held today,” the firm said in a Friday press release. That is based on population estimates for 2024 from the U.S. Census Bureau.

California would lose two seats, while Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Oregon would see the loss of one seat in the case of apportionment being held right now, according to those population estimates, the firm said.

Seats being lost in places like New York and California, some of the biggest states in the U.S. by population, could also be a risk for Democrats. The Empire State and Golden State are currently considered left-leaning strongholds that have been key to Democratic victories and power in recent years.

[Polybius]

1. Even more worrisome is that they will gain Electoral Votes, while CA & NY lose them

Democrats can lose 10 EV's just like that.

[jimfields33]

3. What are people moving out of blue states?

It doesn’t make sense. They have the best schools, resources, and other attributes. I think the people moving to Idaho, Texas, Florida and Arizona are going to find the grass isn’t greener than they believe.

[Mariana]

4. A lot of them are Republican voting retirees.

Being retirees, they don't care about schools, jobs, reproductive care, etc. because they don't need any of that. Florida is so solidly red now because for years Republican voting retirees have been pouring into the state. Places like The Villages have grown like weeds.

[jimfields33]

5. True. Then it's no as bad since the blue states will

become bluer. The red states will become worse. I now look at this as a positive for blue state population. They won’t have any push back since they all will be out of the state.

[eppur_se_muova]

6. It would be nice of some of those narrow wins for Rs became narrow wins for Ds !

Remember all the seats lost to the GOP in NY this year ? And all the close losses in CA ? The number of open seats in blue states may go down, but the swing districts could move toward Ds -- possibly a net gain.

[LeftInTX]

7. Housing, taxes and jobs.

Schools aren't as good, but Californians move to Texas for those three reasons. They live in decent areas with decent schools. Schools aren't as good as CA, but if they're in a nicer area than CA, it likely evens out. Texas schools tend to be "segregated". (Well, I guess you could say that about anywhere) But around here Californians settle in suburban areas with the better schools. The weather is their biggest complaint. Followed by public services. (Roads and traffic in general) Crime is about the same. I haven't heard too many complaints about the quality of public ed.

[Buckeyeblue]

8. The de-emphasis of vaccines in these states will likely negate any net gains

I also think other extremely facist policies in these states will drive away the sane people that live there.

The next four years are going to be quite the challenge for us.