I think Texas is better than most think

[Pototan]

I have posted a link to the economist Trump approval polls. If you scroll down to the approval ratings by state and click on Texas, it's a negative net of 17.2%. That's in line with most of the swing states and rivals Virginia, which is considered light blue. The most recent special election for the state senate seat confirms this number. My evaluation is that the large swing is in the Latino community and it will result in a large Republican miscalculation

All I'm trying to say here is that Texas could be a surprise on election night. A big surprise

https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

[Vogon_Glory]

1. From your keyboard to God's monitor

I hope you’re right but I’ve despaired of Texas politics taking even a slight turn for the better during my lifetime. Time and time again, the Texas legislature has run through some choice piece of racism or reaction and the potentially progressive parts of the electorate have continued their big sleep when I’d hoped they’d come out with torches and pitchforks.

I’d LOVE to be wrong.

[Lonestarblue]

2. A Democrat just won a special election to the state legislature with a big margin.

Trump won this Fort Worth district by 17 points, but the Democrat won 57 to 43 over the Republican.

The problem with Texas is gerrymandering. All the big cities are Democratic, and I think that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by a good margin, but gerrymandering protects the Republicans. At some point, and I hope 2026 is it, the gerrymandering will backfire and voters will see it as the corrupt Republican power okay it is and vote against them. That said, there are still a lot of the Trump MAGA crowd in Texas.

[Pototan]

4. I think Republicans are counting on voters

that they only had temporarily.

The national Latino vote has shifted dramatically against the Trump administration and the elected Republicans. That's what I think is happening in Texas.

[tinrobot]

6. Gerrymandering depends on voters they assume are reliable.

And when they try to expand how many seats are gerrymandered, the margins get tighter and tighter.

If one group flips, such as Latinos, then the whole thing collapses. And we win.

[Demsrule86]

3. We won an important seat last night.

when Democrat Christian Menefee won a Texas U.S. House seat in a special election Saturday that will narrow Republicans' already-slim majority

[dalton99a]

5. Kick

Seen at Apple store in Austin:



https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/1qskq6u/seen_at_apple_store_in_the_domain/

Downtown:

[WhiskeyGrinder]

7. Voter suppression is a huge factor in Texas

[JCMach1]

8. Swing in latino, working class and suburban red state voters

Tarrant is a swing county in TX. Dems will win statewide when Tarrant becomes reliably 🔵 .

So yeah, this is a 5 alarm fire for MAGAs in TX.

[Kid Berwyn]

9. Texas and Texans are great!!!!

Abbott and his co-conspirators, however, are low-down, no-good, dirty shitheels that stink of the orange traitor.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

10. I have been active in Texas politics for a long time and I am still hoping that Texas will turn blue

I have been following some demographic trends for a while that would indicate that Texas should turn blue. Texas is getting older and more urban. Texas was more republican that these trends would indicate in 2024 in large part because Hispanics voted for trump and the GOP in larger numbers than what one would expect. I grew up in or near the Rio Grand Valley that went for trump. I was surprised by this result.

Last night was a great result in a state senate runoff race where a Democrat won a seat by 14 percentage points that trump won by 17 percentage points.

Link to tweet

If this swing was held up nationally, Texas would be blue as would the rest of the country

Link to tweet

This race was largely symbolic in that the next time the next time the Texas legis will be in session will be after the November elections and special elections are not necessarily representative of national/regular elections.

I am encouraged by the fact that Hispanic voters in SD 9 went for the Democrat.

Link to tweet

In Texas, there is a racist tradition called sundown towns where non-whites used to have to be out of the city limits by sundown or face lynching. Vidor Texas is one such city. The democrat in this race flipped a local sundown city in this race

Link to tweet

These results are encouraging to me. I still believe that Texas will turn blue. trump's alienation of Hispanic voters should continue given the current ICE operations.