If Abdul El-Sayed wins the Democratic nomination for Senate in MI, do you think he will defeat Mike Rogers in November?

[Polybius]

This is a simple poll regarding the Michigan Senate race. As of today, it looks like it's gonna be Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers. The primary date is August 4th.

Remember, this poll is for who you think will win. It's obviously not who you want to win. No matter your choice, please feel free to state your reason.

39 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	I think Abdul El-Sayed wins
	21 (54%)
	I think Mike Rogers wins
	10 (26%)
	I honestly have no idea, this is a tough one!
	8 (21%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[JBTaurus83]

1. Sometimes it seems that some here prefer republicans

Over progressives. They spend more time shit posting about our own party than beating Republicans. I say El Sayed wins easily. I’m from MI originally and he will turn out the metro Detroit area. A lot of the racists won’t show up to vote for either of them.

[Polybius]

2. I'm just generally curious what other think of this race

I posted a similar "who do you think will win" Harris vs Trump poll a day before the election. I voted Harris in that poll, saying that she would get around 276 EV's, and I was pretty much blasted by those saying it would easily be 320+.

[JBTaurus83]

3. Sorry I didn't mean you

I just meant more in general. If I were in Michigan I’d happily vote for any of the Dem candidates, it just seems like here, the Bernie/Hillary divide never ended and we spend so much time shit talking our own candidates.

[Quiet Em]

4. I think a Democratic candidate will beat Mike Rogers

I think Michigan Democratic voters will decide which Democratic candidate it will be.

[EdmondDantes_]

5. I think El-Sayed would win

It's going to be a tough year for Republicans already and Trump is seemingly unwilling to end the war with Iran which is going to keep gas and other prices up.

I also think El-Sayed has an impressive record and especially given the problems in Flint that his focus on clean water (and his public health background) will sell well.

And while I have my problems with him campaigning with Hasan Piker, he has said Israel's right to exist isn't a question which helps mitigate Piker to me.

And Rogers is a spineless putz who went from acknowledging that Biden won in 2020 to lying about it. Tying himself to Trump like that in 2026 isn't likely to help him.

[Quiet Em]

6. Yeah, what the hell is so great about Mike Rogers that people think he can win

I think Mike Rogers is an ass.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. I agree. Aside from midterms we are electing a new governor

I think the GOTV will be really good, which helps Democratic candidates. Also I think his tough talk on Israel will help him with the Muslim community in the Detroit suburbs.

[LeftInTX]

15. It looks like Jocelyn Benson is a good choice for the Dems. And she's polling well. But the polls are kinda old.

There appears to be drama in the R primary, so that's a good thing. And it seems like their front runner is MAGA endorsed

[Buckeyeblue]

16. John James is going to win the primary

It was sort of close for a bit. But Perry Johnson banked on Trump's endorsement but he didn't get it.

James lost in his senate bid in 2024. He doesn't seem like a particularly strong candidate.

[MichMan]

7. Not sure our state is ready to elect someone named Abdul El-Sayed

First he has to beat Haley Stevens

[EdmondDantes_]

10. They voted for a guy named Barack Obama

If El-Sayed wins the primary, he should win the Senate seat.

[MichMan]

11. Yes, but our country doesn't elect the same parties nominee for president for three consecutive terms

Only once has it happened in the last 75 years. That was working against McCain in 2008 as well as against Clinton in 2016.

[Polybius]

18. It doesn't even do two consecutive terms in a row anymore

Recent Presidential election winners:

2012: Democrat
2016: Republican
2020: Democrat
2024: Republican
2028: Likely Democrat

[LeftInTX]

12. Could, not should. Michigan is trending more conservative in the past two decades.

It was always blue until 2016. It was blue in 2004. It was blue in 2000. It was blue when red presidents were elected. However, in the 2010 and 2014 midterms they elected red state governments. Then in 2016, it went for Trump. In 2020, it went for Biden, but it was a slim margin. In 2024, it went for Trump.

It didn't elect a woman named Kamala.

If turnout is high in Wayne County and if El-Sayed can sway moderates, he can win. Those are the keys.

[JBTaurus83]

14. Dems need to realize the economy wasn't good

In a lot of the swing states. Biden lost a lot of popularity in those states. People didn’t just magically become Dump supporters.

[Polybius]

17. Two big differences though

Obama was far more aligned with the mainstream of the Democratic Party, and he actually won over a meaningful number of Republican voters. He was also hit with false accusations of being a secret Muslim, claims that were widely recognized as baseless at the time. With Abdul El-Sayed, those kinds of accusations would be besides the point.

[JBTaurus83]

19. There are also more current differences

The policies of the past have failed to help people. Try running on old Dem policies and see how that works out.

[Raftergirl]

8. It's not about who Democrats or Republicans will vote for in the general, it's about who Independents will

vote for in the general election.

[LeftInTX]

9. I have no idea.

I can't read the tea leaves.
Michigan is certainly not progressive.
It has progressive pockets.

But I don't know much about Rogers.

If El-Sayed wins the primary, how will it play out in more purple areas?

2024 Presidential
Trump 49.73% 48.31% Votes Cast: 5,664,186 Turnout: 56% Wayne County: 856,690 Oakland Couty: 772,145

2020 Presidential
Biden 50.62% 47.84% Votes Cast: 5,547,186 Turnout: 55% Wayne County: 874,018 Oakland County: 771,991


2016 Presidential
Trump 47.50% 47.27% Votes Cast: 4,824,542 Wayne County: 782,719


2012 Presidential
Obama 54.21% 44.71% Votes Cast: 4,745,316 47.95% Wayne County: 818,136

From 2012=2024, the population of Michigan has increased from 9,898, 289 to 10,099,962 by 201,673. Voter turnout has increased over time. However, it appears almost 20,000 voters sat out the elections in Wayne County 2024. However, those 20,000 voters could have not have made the difference in the results.

It's really hard to read the tea leaves. If Wayne County turns out in droves for El-Sayed and turnout for R's is dampened, then he could possibly win. Independents are going to be an issue and could skew R, but it's hard to read.

[Polybius]

20. Rogers seems to be the standard Bush/Dave McCormick-type of Republican

I wish he was more out there, like Kari Lake.

[LeftInTX]

21. I got my stats from Wikipedia.

2016-2024 Suburban areas and rural areas were red. In 2020, I believe a few suburban counties were picked up. Biden squeaked a win. It appeared that the blue votes were the urban areas.

Prior ro 2016 Lots of blue counties throughout the state.