Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.

[usregimechange]

Source: Des Moines Register

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa -- a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state's presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states...

"It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. "She has clearly leaped into a leading position."

... The poll shows that women -- particularly those who are older or are politically independent -- are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Read more: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

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Iowa, yes Iowa is now a battleground state!!! 😍😍😍😍

[arlyellowdog]

1. Wait WHAT holy shit

[bucolic_frolic]

2. That would be quite a blow to Trump. Gov Walz was a genius pick.

[smb]

29. Invest In Ketchup Stock!

If Harris actually carries states that everybody assumed were safe red, the Howling Yam is going to go bonkers even worse than usual.

[rurallib]

3. So hope that will translate into many down ballot victories!

[Traildogbob]

4. Well

All the Iowa MAGA’s about to have a bad day. Umber 11 State getting their “first” lost and Trump about to get his “worst” loss. To a women, a black AND Asian one.
Go Ducks!!!! Good day for me.

[Gaytano70]

5. HOLY CRAP!

I wish we had those numbers for all of Nebraska, not just CD-02! 🔵

[SunSeeker]

6. Wow!

[TwilightZone]

7. Iowa would be a bit of a shock.

If Harris has enough momentum to win Iowa, life is almost certainly good elsewhere, like the blue wall.

[usregimechange]

8. This poll is very well respected, it will...

Turn Iowa into a Battleground state, once the country is aware. I’d say in a few more minutes!

[SharonClark]

9. And Harris hasn't made one appearance in the Iowa.

Would love her to at least have an airport rally. Even at midnight.

[usregimechange]

11. I'm in MO I might attend!

[Doodles]

10. Oh, my!

As an Iowan, I am happily stunned. May it be so!!

[germanparlor]

12. Oh Yes!

[BittyJenkins]

13. WOW and then WOW

It is the sign I have been hoping for!

[dalton99a]

14. Kick

[iluvtennis]

15. It'd in the margin of error....but, we'll take it.. Woohoo!

[YoshidaYui]

16. GANBATTE KUDASAI KAMALA SAMA

ガンバッテください!!!!

[Lemon Lyman]

17. :-)

Good for Ralph Newbanks from Solon!

Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.

“It's not what I like about her, it's what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn't vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.”

He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.

“To me, the biggest part of democracy is the ability to compromise,” he said. “And with Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, there is no compromise, even within their own party.”

[moose65]

18. Wouldn't that be delicious!

If Harris wins Iowa, it would be like Obama sneaking in and winning Indiana in 2008, which no one really saw coming. May it be so!

[rubbersole]

21. And Florida. Could be called Tuesday night. 💥

Must. Stock. Liquor. Cabinet.

[cadoman]

19. it looks like everyone who was thinking "someone else", broke to Harris in Iowa

Look at the graph near the bottom where "someone else" goes from 15% to 0%.

[Lemon Lyman]

20. :-)

It’s anecdotal, but here’s something I’ve noticed.

There’s a big-time R supporter who lives just South of Dubuque. It’s a married couple who have a beautiful home. They have $$. They’re big time enough to get R presidential candidates to come to their house for fundraisers. Back in 2010’ish they had one for Santorum. This year they had one for Burgham. They always have all the R candidate signs on their property. In the past 2 presidential election cycles they had a Tangeranus sign. This year they don’t.

There are WAY fewer Tangeranus signs everywhere in Eastern IA this cycle than there were in past elections. Maybe these people are still voting for him, just embarrassed to admit it. Maybe they’re not voting for him this time (they’ve had enough). Hopefully it’s the latter.

[lees1975]

22. The Des Moines Register, considered the "gold standard" of polling in Iowa.

This is not a billionaire bought and paid for poll. It's a straight up, locally based, politically independent poll that has a pulse on what people are thinking. Should have taken notice when the previous poll showed a huge dent in Trump support, even though Harris wasn't leading, but that was early on in the campaign.

If that's happened in Iowa, think what's happened elsewhere. What's Iowa, 6 votes? Trump's overall lead in Texas and Florida, without much available polling data, was less than Iowa.

[valleyrogue]

23. If this poll is accurate, Democrats are looking at a decisive EC win.

The election might be decided fairly early Tuesday night.

[lees1975]

25. This poll, unlike the media polls, are not under the influence of the billionaires.

It's an in-state poll that both Democrats and Republicans consider reliable and on which they often base their own campaign decisions.

[smb]

30. I Have A Mental Image...

...of Cheato at 11PM or so preparing to declare victory and demand a halt to "voting" (i.e. to continuing to count until all the votes are tallied), only to have the election already clearly decided in favor of Harris.

[Deminpenn]

33. A few days ago, Chris Hayes had the guy who runs

NBC's decision desk on. Hayes asked when the election might be called. I thought then that it was just to drag the election out to keep the suspense, and viewers, as long as possible. But. it's also conceivable that Hayes asked that because he thinks, or has seen data, that indicate the race won't be as close as everyone believes.

[wryter2000]

24. Tell me again

How this race is tied or a toss-up or a razor thin election or all the other BS they keep telling us.

[Polybius]

28. We'll find out on Tuesday

Or Wednesday.

[usaf-vet]

26. The grandmother's are protecting the grand daughters rights to

.... Make their own reproductive choices.

[Sugarcoated]

31. Yes, we are

🩵

[Blue_Roses]

35. Exactly.

They know how dangerous things are for them right now.

[samnsara]

40. thats exactly what im doing.. My dtrs job moved her from Seattle to Alabama

...my grand dtrs are 18 and 20 and in college so they moved as well and transferred. So..I have two grand daughters in Alabama

but they have me as a safety line here in wash state...

[usaf-vet]

42. We all have a niece that her husband's job took her to Alabama. She is teaching in a public school. Two danger issue....

.... we are also the check valve here north, just short of Canada.

[JPPaverage]

32. As an Iowan

As an Iowa native, this makes me happy. Maybe, just maybe, people are waking up.

[bcoley]

34. Another native Iowan's view

I was shocked . . . and in party mode . . . when I first heard about the new Des Moines Register poll. It's a well-respected poll about which the Iowa GOP leadership howled loudly Saturday night.

Interestingly, the Emerson Poll, out of Emerson College in Boston, also released a poll about Iowa on Saturday, but that poll showed Trump with a ten point lead. Both polls had an ~800 person sample size, but the Iowa Poll limited its review to Iowans who either had already voted or who definitely planned to vote. Perhaps the Emerson poll didn't filter for the likelihood of participants' voting?

The Iowa Poll has a recent history of being within 1-3 points of the final margin in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections. Until they're proven wrong this election, I'm trusting (and smiling about) it.

p.s. If you want the details about the Iowa Poll, here's a link to the story on the Des Moines Register's website:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

[DallasNE]

36. I Suspect She Does A More In-Depth Interview Process

Than other poll takers and that means she captures the so-called hidden Trump voter so she doesn't say they every Democrat vote counts a .96 votes and every Republlcan vote counts as 1.05 votes. On a national scale that would also account for Harris to only lead Trump by 2 nationally. The Iowa poll shows the big difference is women of all ages are more for Harris than what the other pollsters are picking up on. The Iowa poll simply makes more sense that other polls. Tuesday will confirm who is right and who isn't.

[IowaUnionman]

37. Iowa poll

I was informed that due to the large amount of absentee ballots they need me to come in on Monday morning as well as Tuesday to count absentee ballots. Miller-Meeks won by 6 ballots last time, I don’t think she makes it this time !

[augyboston]

38. Sanity is prevailing.

Sanity is prevailing as more and more people, especially women, hear the sick vulgar garbage coming out of tRump's and many other MAGA mouths realize that this time is different.

If Kamala can take North Carolina and Iowa it'll be game, set and match - checkmate and goodbye Donnie!

[samnsara]

39. i checked my phone at 1 am and saw this headline!I only have enough

eye power at that time to read a quick headline and i went back to sleep smiling.

[electric_blue68]

41. Have a 20+ yrs long on line Iowan Dem acquaintence...

I'd be thrilled for her (and us) if Iowa went Blue! 😄👍