Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected
Source: CNBC
Published Fri, Dec 20 2024 8:32 AM EST Updated 14 Min Ago
Prices barely moved in November but still held higher than the Federal Reserves target when looked at from a year ago, according to a Commerce Department measure released Friday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Feds preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October. The measure indicated a 2.4% inflation rate on an annual basis, still ahead of the Feds 2% goal but lower than the 2.5% estimate from Dow Jones. The monthly reading also was 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.
Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings also being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast. Fed officials generally consider the core reading to be a better gauge of long-run inflation trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries category.
The annual core inflation reading was the same as in October while the headline rate rose 0.1 percentage point.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/pce-inflation-november-2024-.html
Article updated.
Previous article -
Prices barely moved in November but still held higher than the Federal Reserve's target when looked at from a year ago, according to a Commerce Department measure released Friday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October. The measure indicated a 2.4% inflation rate on an annual basis, still ahead of the Fed's 2% goal but lower than the 2.5% estimate from Dow Jones. The monthly reading also was 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.
Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings also being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast. Fed officials generally consider the core reading to be a better gauge of long-run inflation trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries category.
The report comes just two days after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, the lowest in two years. However, Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues reduced their expected path in 2025, now penciling in just two cuts compared to four indicated in September.
Original article -
The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to show a 2.5% annual inflation rate in November after rising 0.2% monthly, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
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nmmi
(216 posts)to 2.4%, and the 12 month core PCE stayed flat at 2.8%
As always on 12-month (aka yoy = year-over-year) or any n-month figures, the number dropping out of the n-month window matters as much as the one entering the n-month window. November 2023 dropped out of the 12-month window, which were monthly increases of PCE: 0.0% and Core PCE: 0.1%
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2024
ETA
3 month average, annualized:
PCE: 2.13%, rounds to 2.1% (compare to 2.4% yoy)
Core PCE: 2.54%. rounds to 2.5% (compare to 2.8% yoy)
The Core PCE is the PCE less food and energy