Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Reuters

March 27, 2026,9:05 AM EDT Updated 4 mins ago


WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal as the U.S. and Israeli war on the country ​nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the U.S. intelligence.

The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and ‌bunkers, four of the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information.

One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran's drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed. The assessment, which has not been previously reported, shows that while most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.

The intelligence stands in contrast to President Donald Trump's public remarks on Thursday that Iran ​had "very few rockets left". He also appeared to acknowledge the threat from remaining Iranian missiles and drones to any future U.S. operations to safeguard the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed-sources-say-2026-03-27/

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But it WAS OBLIGATED!!1!!11!!111!!

[JBTaurus83]

1. This is also probably a way

To keep us there longer than expected. We have to “Finish the Job”. Whatever the job is.

[LiberalArkie]

2. Seeing as who is in charge of DOW, I would guess that they are over estimating so that they can puff out their chests

proclaiming how great their attacks were. After all Trump and Hedgehog already declared that they destroyed it all.

[riversedge]

3. Strange. How can Trump get rid of something he said was obliterated last year??

[LetMyPeopleVote]

4. Geology as warfare: Iran put its missiles where physics, not diplomacy, keeps them safe

CNN satellite analysis and Alma Research findings show Iran’s underground tunnel cities, with internal rail systems that move missiles to blast-door exits, have survived the bombing campaign largely intact. The geology, analysts say, is the real defense.

Link to tweet

https://www.thestatesman.com/world/iran-underground-missile-railway-tunnel-us-israel-strikes-operation-epic-fury-1503573121.html

Three weeks of intensive US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure have destroyed radar systems, collapsed tunnel entrances, and cratered ventilation shafts across dozens of sites. Iran keeps firing. The reason, according to satellite analysis by CNN and assessments by Israeli security research centre Alma Research, lies not above the ground but hundreds of metres beneath it; inside a network of underground missile cities connected by internal railways, carved into mountains that no bomb in the current American or Israeli arsenal can fully reach.

Iran’s underground missile programme is not a recent improvisation. Reports that emerged as far back as 2020 claimed an automated railway system running through cavernous tunnels, transporting ballistic missiles between assembly halls, storage vaults, and blast-door exits. What is becoming clearer now, as Operation Epic Fury enters its fourth week, is the scale of what was built and the limits of what air power alone can do against it.....

The central constraint is geological, and it has now been publicly stated by Iran itself. Former IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that Iran built its missile bases across provinces and cities at a depth of 500 metres.

The most powerful weapon the United States has for destroying hardened underground targets is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator – a 30,000-pound bomb built specifically for this purpose. It can penetrate “approximately 60 metres of reinforced concrete or roughly 40 metres of moderate rock. Granite is harder than moderate rock. Five hundred metres is more than twelve times the weapon’s maximum penetration depth. The gap between the bomb and the tunnel is not a margin of error.”....

“IRGC did not prepare for this war by building rockets. It prepared by building railways inside mountains. The rockets are replaceable. The railways are permanent. And the granite that protects them was formed before mammals existed. The strait is 21 miles wide. The mountain is 500 metres deep. And the railway inside it is still delivering missiles to the surface,” he added.

Link to tweet

Iran has continued to fire ballistic missiles throughout Operation Epic Fury, including the attempted strike on the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia. Trump has said the operation is running weeks ahead of schedule and that Iran’s military is finished. The satellite imagery and the institutional assessments tell a more complicated story: one in which the visible war, fought above ground, has made genuine progress, and the invisible war, fought half a kilometre underground, has barely begun.

There is a reason why only one-third of Iran's missiles have been destroyed. Iran has been preparing for these attacks for decades. Iran's missile facilities are beyond reach of bunker buster bombs and there is no practical way without a very large number of troops to take out these missies.

[pat_k]

5. In addition, weaponry is widely dispersed to numerous IRGC/Basij bases

The article is from 3/16, but makes some important points.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/us-says-it-has-destroyed-iran-missile-capacity-how-is-iran-still-shooting

But Iran is a vast country, and without boots on the ground, it will be hard to completely eliminate Iran’s capacity to shoot despite the US and Israel having nearly full control of the country’s airspace, said David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC.

“It is not obvious to identify launchers,” Des Roches told Al Jazeera. “What we see are missiles that were put in hidden places or places not associated with the military before the war, when there was less observation”.

According to Des Roches, the slowdown in launches is due to Iranian forces having lost the capacity to launch volleys. As a result, Iran has been firing one or two missiles at a time towards civilian and commercial infrastructure, especially in Gulf countries, instead of aiming volleys at military targets. Iran insists that it is targeting only US interests in the region...

Iranians have decentralised the missile command, relying more on mobile launchers, which are harder to detect and target, Azizi said. “This is a race about time.”

And in that race, Iran believes it has a chance, say experts.

“It does not matter how many you launch as long as you maintain a credible threat,” Muhanad Seloom, an assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera. “It takes one successful drone to shatter a sense of security.”...

Iran has long experience in producing cheap yet effective drones. The Shahed 136 can be made quickly and in large numbers in relatively simple factories, and several of them can be fired at once, overwhelming defences. It also doesn’t need complex launchers that can be targeted in air strikes. With a speed of just 185km/h (115mph), Shaheds can be shot down by helicopters. Still, many have managed to get through US and Gulf air defence systems

.

There are an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 Basij bases across Iran (see wikipedia Basij entry).

The bases are often deeply embedded within urban neighborhoods and have been employed to widely disperse smaller, mobile military hardware.