BTRTN: Buckle Up for the Longest 85 Days

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers cautions that despite the extraordinary surge in energy that Harris and Walz have created for the Democrats, it must not distort the true picture or breed overconfidence. There are still 85 days to go, crazy stuff can still happen, and the race is still an absolute dead heat. Most worrisome: Donald Trump is desperate and he is turning meaner and uglier every day. Read “BTRTN: Buckle Up for the Longest 85 Days.”

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/08/11/btrtn-buckle-up-for-the-longest-85-days/

Excerpts: "I am inherently neither an optimist nor pessimist. But there may be something to calling me an oppositomist. When I encounter gloom, doom, and despair, my instinct is to try to buck people up. And when I see giddy, delirious glee, I get nervous.
Today, I am wary that Democrats are on such a high about their amazing change in fortune that they are losing sight of just how close this election is going to be. Ebullience begets confidence, and confidence breeds hubris. Hubris fails to turn out the vote...
"Donald Trump seems utterly befuddled. None of his go-to tricks are working. None of his insults cut, none of his labels stick, none of his shtick is worth a lick. He is being out-rallied, out-fund-raised, and often even out-polled. His VP pick is so underpowered that the pundits are calling him “J.V. Vance.” He makes Dan Quayle look like Thomas Jefferson. Heck, J.D. Vance makes Mike Pence look like People Magazine’s “Sexiest Man Alive.”
"But history tells me that the time between today and November 5 will be measured in dog years as we ride an emotional roller coaster that will whipsaw from optimism to heartbreak faster than you can flip from MSNBC to FOX...
"Why? Three reasons...

[lees1975]

1. Since I had trouble believing that Biden was really trailing the way the polling data was tracking,

I don't put much stock in this analysis either.

I think opinions and attitudes about Trump have been baked in for a long time, and the only factor that gives him any chance at all to win an election at this point, especially after the fit he threw when he lost last time, is the variable created by people who tend to vote Republican no matter how bad the candidate. I think Americans are tired of the lies, the tirades, the name calling, the lack of substance and the crimes, and regardless of the enthusiasm level, Biden was on track for a solid win like he got in 2020. Most of these polls aren't taking into consideration an enthusiasm gap among Republicans that has produced over 20% of a primary vote going to others, even after they've dropped out.

While I agree that this surge of enthusiasm over Harris and Walz should not trigger overconfidence, I don't have much confidence in their analysis. The differences between the two sides in this one are pretty stark and clear. There's not going to be a lot of bouncing back and forth.