Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post's polling model

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post’s polling model
The Democratic nominee could win in the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt and get to the White House, while Donald Trump must win in both geographic regions to triumph.

By Lenny Bronner
August 15, 2024 at 1:44 p.m. EDT

A lot has changed in the presidential race over the last three weeks, according to The Washington Post’s polling average. ... Since President Joe Biden exited the presidential race on July 21 and passed the baton to Kamala Harris, his vice president, the race has effectively reversed itself. It is no exaggeration to state that Harris would be the favorite to win the White House, according to our polling model, if the presidential contest were held today.

Relative to the day that Biden dropped out, Harris has gained two percentage points nationally and, as of Sunday, leads in our national polling average. In swing states, she has gained an average of 2.1 points since June 21 and leads in 2 of 7 of them. ... Harris has taken the lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and has substantially closed the gap in Michigan, where Donald Trump now leads with less than one percentage point (if this trend continues, we’d expect our average to show a tie in that state in the coming days).

According to our polling model, Harris still trails Trump in the electoral college tally if the election were held today and every state votes as their polling average currently demonstrates. Nonetheless, she would be the favorite if voters today went to the polls because Harris now has more paths to the presidency than Donald Trump — that is, she is competitive in more states that could add up to 270 votes or an electoral college victory.

Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada (she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.

{snip}

By Lenny Bronner
Lenny Bronner is a data scientist with a focus on elections. Twitter

[SheltieLover]

1. Woo Hoo!

[sheshe2]

5. OMG

It is so good to see you!

[SheltieLover]

6. Hi SheShe!!!

Time to kick ass and take names along the path to victory for Harris & Walz & down ballots!

Good to see you, too!!!

[sheshe2]

7. 💙💙💙

I agree, SheltieLover, let’s all kick some ass together.

We can do this, yes we can.

[brer cat]

9. It's great to see you back among us, Sheltie!!

[SheltieLover]

10. Hi BC!

Thx!

Felt it time to step up & do what I'm able to help get Harris/Walz & down ballots elected.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. There's far more than just two paths

Mathematically, there are something like 35 combinations of swing states that get Harris at or over 270, and that’s just combinations of three states.
If she wins more than three swing states, it’s over for Donnie Two Scoops.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. ECV Votes

GA AZ NV 16 + 11 + 10 = 37

PA MI WI 19 + 15 + 10 = 44

WI and NV are perfect substitutes, as are GA and MI.

[lees1975]

4. Wisconsin is 10, not 15.

But I've read that there are multiple polls that have her ahead in all six of these, plus North Carolina, and closing the gap within the margin of error in Florida. I predict we are seeing an Obama 2008 win here, at the very least.

[GreenWave]

8. Others say she is ahead in 6 of 7, not 2 of 7 "swing states"