Why Harris' polls performance might be more than a 'honeymoon'

[marmar]

Why Harris’ polls performance might be more than a ‘honeymoon’
Looking back to before her candidacy, there's some consistency in Kamala Harris' polling against Trump — and room to grow.

Aug. 15, 2024, 6:00 AM EDT
By Hayes Brown, MSNBC Opinion Writer/Editor


Since she catapulted to the top of the Democrats’ ticket last month, Vice President Kamala Harris has been quickly closing the gap with former President Donald Trump in polls. After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, it was looking like Democrats would be routed. Harris has essentially made it a tied race again. The big question, though, is whether her campaign’s momentum can be sustained till November and, crucially, if it translates into votes in the states that will decide the election.

....(snip)....

It remains true that polls don’t tell the whole story and that there’s a risk in Democrats’ thinking that Harris has Trump cornered. Among those reportedly trying to tamp down the enthusiasm is Trump’s top pollster, Tony Fabrizio, as his boss has started to fret about Harris’ surge. “Mr. Fabrizio has predicted to campaign colleagues that Ms. Harris will have another two to three good weeks, through the Democratic National Convention, and then her poll numbers will turn in the other direction,” The New York Times reports.

....(snip)....

But here’s the thing: We don’t have to take the most recent polling in isolation. Instead, we can compare the latest NYT/Siena results to a poll that the partners conducted last year, when Biden was still in the running and underwater in those key states. In October, Trump led Biden among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup by 5 points in Michigan and 6 points in Pennsylvania, while Biden had a 2-point advantage in Wisconsin.

....(snip)....

This direct comparison suggests a continuity at work here. It wasn’t a given that Harris would find herself performing as well as or better than the generic Democrat voters were asked about in last year’s survey. For her to have taken the lead among likely voters in those swing states demonstrates that there’s more at work here than mere relief that Biden is out. Her numbers also undercut the assumption that Harris is enjoying an unsustainable boost after replacing Biden. Instead, as NBC News recently reported, her campaign is doing the work to ensure that this surge in enthusiasm is being converted into a veritable army of volunteers. .................(more)

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/election-2024-trump-harris-swing-states-poll-numbers-rcna166610

[Midnight Writer]

1. I don't think Harris' surge is a "honeymoon" or "a sugar high".

I think it is a rational counter-response to the insanity of the MAGA.

Unless the GOP can offer something other than lies and hate and greed then they will drive away patriots who love this country and its people.

[bearsfootball516]

2. It's pretty obvious it's not a honeymoon at this point.

Political honeymoon's don't last three and a half weeks.

[yellowcanine]

3. Lot of "whistling in the dark" by Trumpers.

GOTV by Dems is going to prove them wrong. Plus Roe backlash.