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Beringia

(4,660 posts)
Wed Nov 6, 2024, 04:39 PM Nov 6

I was looking for any political pundit who predicted Trump would win and found at least one

J.T. Young, a republican who worked in the house and senate.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4966265-will-harris-lose-the-popular-vote/

From November 3, 2024

Excerpts

Long gone is Harris’s early lead. According to RealClearPolitics’ average of national polling, she just fell behind Trump on Oct. 26 for the first time since early August. The RealClearPolitics’ average of battleground state polling also has her at a slight disadvantage, she trails in five of the seven individual swing states that will decide the presidency.

On Thursday, Trump’s lead in both the national and battleground averages was slightly higher. If all the polling averages translated into voting outcomes, she would lose the electoral college vote, 241-297. She entered this weekend needing to make up ground.

The upshot is that Harris is not simply seeing a lower level of support than Biden and Clinton this late in their respective campaigns, but that she could wind up reaping a lower percentage of that lower level of support, too.

Several trends are appearing late in this race, all of them currently running against Harris. Should they combine, it could unleash a perfect storm for Democrats.


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I was looking for any political pundit who predicted Trump would win and found at least one (Original Post) Beringia Nov 6 OP
the polling never made sense for what Trump was doing in the campaign-- he was so awful-- so a lot of us assumed LymphocyteLover Nov 7 #1
Agreed - the polls were being created to influence Chump voters FakeNoose Nov 7 #2
also elections in 2022 showed Dems being under-represented in polls, likely due to the Roe effect LymphocyteLover Nov 7 #3

LymphocyteLover

(6,987 posts)
1. the polling never made sense for what Trump was doing in the campaign-- he was so awful-- so a lot of us assumed
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:43 AM
Nov 7

the polls were being jiggered to help trump somehow, and some polls supported that idea

FakeNoose

(36,031 posts)
2. Agreed - the polls were being created to influence Chump voters
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 11:32 AM
Nov 7

... and they were everywhere ... constantly.

LymphocyteLover

(6,987 posts)
3. also elections in 2022 showed Dems being under-represented in polls, likely due to the Roe effect
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 02:54 PM
Nov 7

but that apparently didn't show up here.

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