BTRTN 2024 Election Post-Mortem: No GOP Mandate, Just More Zigzagging
Born To Run The Numbers draws two main conclusions about the 2024 election: (1) Donald Trump cannot justify the claim that this election constituted a "mandate," and (2) 2024 represents the latest installment of zigzagging, as a polarized country feels enough disgust with the status quo to switch horses ever four years.
https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/11/22/btrtn-2024-election-post-mortem-no-gop-mandate-just-more-zigzagging/
Excerpts: "I have two simple points to make, and then I’ll take a look at how we did with our BTRTN election predictions.
"The Election Was Extremely Close. There seems to be almost universal acceptance that this was a blowout GOP election. This is simply not true and nowhere near true. While the GOP did win a trifecta – as did Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020 – control of the White House, Senate and House were all won by razor thin margins, and hardly represent the “mandate” that Trump has claimed...
"Said another way, if she had flipped just 117,000 votes from Trump in those three states, just a fraction (0.0008) of the total popular vote of 154 million, Harris would have won...
"There is much talk of this being a 'sea change' election signaling a sharp rightward movement of the electorate. If so, it’s a pretty small sea – more like a 'pond change.' If one looks at the 2020 election on a county change basis, there was a similar 'sea change,' and the same with 2020 versus 2016, and 2016 versus 2012. There was no massive realignment from left to right in 2024. Rather, we are seeing the latest installment of zigzagging, as a polarized country uses outrage at the incumbent to generate enough momentum to eke out a win for four years...
"There have been dozens of reasons put forward by critics who see the outcome through the lens of their own particular issue, a Rorschach test for the Big Tent party. The truth is, in a close election, all of these factors have some validity. It does not take much to influence 117,000 voters. I am a shades-of-gray type, and the right answer to a complicated question is often 'all of the above.' But I do think there is one issue that rises above the rest in explaining the Trump victory. And that one issue is inflation..."
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