Chance of strong El Nino jumps to 80%
San Francisco Chronicle / March 11, 2026
One of the world’s top seasonal forecast models now puts the odds of a strong El Niño developing by late summer at 80%. The odds of at least a moderate event are even higher, around 98%, with some models flirting with super El Niño territory by fall.
That’s the latest from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which released its updated predictions last week. (A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration long-range model output released over the weekend is in agreement.)
SNIP
As recently as a month ago, he noted, forecast models showed several possible outcomes. But now, there is a growing consensus that a moderate to strong El Niño will emerge by the end of the summer.
SNIP
Strong El Niño years also historically tend to bring a more active eastern Pacific hurricane season, increasing the odds that tropical storm remnants reach California before fully dissipating. The 2023 El Niño year helped fuel 10 eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2023, including two Category 5 storms and Hurricane Hilary, which maintained hurricane strength within 200 miles of the California coast.
Link (paywall): https://eedition.sfchronicle.com/infinity/article_popover_share.aspx?guid=2854fff9-ee1b-4ab2-ba60-8b5ef53b2328&
Highlights, from the link:
• Bay Area beaches could see warmer, sunnier conditions this year if the El Niño signal holds.
• Patterns point toward a classic eastern Pacific El Niño, the structure associated with two of the strongest El Niños on record in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
• "It's a crapshoot ... 2014 was supposed to be the same, but it was a bust,” says one California-focused meteorologist.
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I remember the El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98. It rained. A lot.