John Ralston Early Voting Report 10/09/24

[RandySF]

The Republicans have closed on the Democrats not because they have increased their numbers since 2020; they simply have lost fewer voters than the Dems as the number of non-majors has soared.

If both parties hold their bases, Trump would just need to win indies by a small margin to win here for the first time since George W. Bush in 2004. The real conundrum for the campaigns – and for number-crunchers such as yours truly – is to figure out what the turnout is going to be among those non-major party voters.......

The key for Harris, as it is for all statewide Democratic candidates, is building up a firewall in Clark County during early voting to offset rural landslide losses. The firewall in 2020 was 90,000 voters (the Dem registration edge was about 150,000 in Clark), almost exactly the margin Biden won by in the most populous county. It seems highly unlikely Harris will get anywhere near that number as the Dem lead over the GOP in Clark is now just under six figures.

Dems recently have done just well enough in Washoe, winning by small margins, to ensure statewide victory. It used to be Dems could only feel comfortable if they had a double-digit edge coming out of Clark. Those days of consistently hitting that mark may be over.

Biden won Clark by about 9 percentage points, but he also won Washoe by 4.5 points to ensure Trump did not have enough votes in the rurals to catch up. The 2020 raw vote totals:




https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

[displacedvermoter]

1. When did early voting start in Nevada?

He is making it sound pretty grim a month before election day, which seems fairly preposterous.

I admit I am baffled by much of his analysis, especially when he himself admits he doesn't know what turnout numbers are actually going to be. How does he know voters will be "non major party voters"? And how does he account for new voters?

[SunImp]

3. That is pretty much what he did last time

When Republicans were leading before most of the mail in ballots came in he was posting like someone died. Then when the mail ins came in he was all victorious acting like a hero to save the day. I think he is just a little bit too full of himself.

[displacedvermoter]

4. Pretty gloomy I thought

[kansasobama]

2. Sounds grim with no clear analysis

Lot of analysis with no clarity. What is he trying to to say? We have lost?