Jon Ralston's Early Voting Update 10/25/24

[RandySF]

So the Republicans lead by more than 22,000 ballots, or 5 percent, almost solely because of 25,000-ballot rural firewall for the GOP. (Fun fact is that almost 21,000 of that GOP advantage in rural Nevada comes from just six of the 15 counties: Lyon, Douglas, Elko, Nye, Carson and Churchill.

The usually redoubtable Clark Democratic firewall is only at 5,500 voters as the GOP has a more than 5 percent turnout advantage where the most votes are. That is affecting every partisan race on the ballot here. (More on that coming.) Clark's turnout also is well below its registration share, and if that lasts, the GOP will do very well. It seems unlikely to, though, unless a whole bunch of mail carriers are kidnapped in Las Vegas.

It’s almost certain this disparity between the urban (Washoe is close, with GOP up by 3,000 votes, but there essentially is no urban firewall)) and rural firewalls can’t last much longer. (If it does hold, there will be a deep red wave here, but I don’t know anyone who understands this stuff who believes that will happen. The data will tell.)

What we are seeing is just an unusual and unprecedented (for a presidential year) pattern of how the votes are coming in: The GOP advantage will come early, where the Dem advantage used to, and the Dem advantage (thanks to urban mail) will come later. No one really disputes this. Why? Because we know Republicans have been encouraged to vote earlier and we know that turnout will be upwards of 75 percent for each party because it’s a presidential year.

I assume, until the data and common sense tell me differently, that the turnout mix is going to be at or around what it as in 2020 and 2016, where the Rs had about a 5 percent overall advantage. The huge difference is that the Dem registration edge usually gave them a cushion. This cycle, because the gap has closed, they have almost no margin for error and thus the indie split becomes critical. Let me show you.



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

[pat_k]

1. I think Simon Rosenberg's prediction will become more evident as time goes on.

17:29 Usually, at the end of October there is a debate and it sort of wakes everybody up.... Donald Trump... got his ass kicked so bad in the last debate, he couldn't do this final debate...

so it's on the campaigns.

19:35 I want to give Kamala's team incredible credit... they built a strategy around closing strong with incredible frenetic energy to show this intensity that we're bringing here...

20:08 Our capacity to close is much stronger than theirs, meaning it's far more likely that we're going to move the election toward us.

21:21 I texted with Olivia Troy today, who's one of the President's of Republicans for Harris... she said she had people coming up to her at events in the last couple days -- Republicans saying, you know, I was kind of on the fence, but this behavior in the last week. I can't do it. I just can't do it... And if the pollster I was on the panel with yesterday is correct, she's seeking slow incremental movement toward Harris.

22:00
The likely scenario in the election was always going to be that at the end of the day a big chunk of republicans just couldn't vote for this guy because he is unacceptable; he is the most dangerous man in American political history. He is someone who not only wants to strip the rights and freedoms away from the women of America. . . but literally, Donald Trump is promising that he's going to rip apart and end the global economy that has made us prosperous; he's going to end the Western Alliance that's kept us safe; he'd going to end American democracy that's kept us free. These are the things that he's telling us he's going to do.

23:45
We've gotta win this thing for our families, our democracy, our freedoms and our future. . . . We've gotta close here with joy, and confidence, and strength, and power, and not from fear and worry. Fear and worry are what they want. What we want is we close this thing with joy and love of country and love of one another. These are far more powerful emotions than fear and worry.

[Midnight Writer]

2. I wonder what the female/male differential is among the early voters.

That may be more telling than the Democrat/Republican differential.

Maybe I am foolish, but I look for a sleeper vote coming from women.