Bombshell: Democrat flips reddest seat yet in Texas - Brian Tyler Cohen

[TexasTowelie]

BTC: Some breaking news here. Democrat Taylor Rehmet just flipped a seat in the Texas State Senate's 9th district. A seat that went for Donald Trump by a staggering 17 points in 2024 and went for the Republican candidate by 20 points in 2022. Now going for the Democrat by over 14 points, meaning this is a 31% overperformance by the Democrat in this Texas seat. In other words, this is not a purple seat. This is a ruby red safe seat that has been in Republican control since 1991, which is now blue.

And here's what's even crazier. Look at the spending differential in this race. The top candidate is the Republican, the bottom candidate the Democrat. Look at the difference in expenditures. The fact that Republicans had that much of an advantage over the Democrats and yet Rehmet still won goes to show the massive amount of enthusiasm on the left or the anemic enthusiasm on the right. Either way doesn't exactly bode well for the GOP as we head toward midterms.

I should note very quickly that I'll be covering every race between now and midterms, all the special elections. So, if you'd like to follow along and support independent media in the process, the best way to do that is to subscribe to this channel, which is and always will be 100% free. Just hit the subscribe button.

Now, here's the thing. This seat in Texas isn't some isolated fluke. It is the latest data point in what is becoming an undeniable trend. Democrats are overperforming everywhere. In November's general election, just a few months back, Democrats dominated. They won the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races by double digits. They flipped their first non-federal statewide offices in Georgia in nearly 20 years. They passed a massive redistricting ballot measure in California despite early doubts by a staggering two-thirds margin. They retained the state supreme court majority in Pennsylvania, which is another state that Trump won in 2024.

And venturing into even redder territory, there's Tennessee's high-profile seventh congressional district just a few months back, where Democrats came within nine points of winning a congressional seat in a district that Trump won by 22 points, and where former Republican lawmaker Mark Green had won by 21 points. A 22 point Trump district became a 9-point race. There's a 13-point swing there toward the Democrats.

According to CNN, Democrats overperformed by double digits in every single special election for the House held in 2025. Every single one. In fact, 2025 special elections account for five of Democrats 15 biggest overperformances since Trump first became president in 2017, nearly a decade ago, across more than three dozen special elections.

Now, in terms of why Democrats are cleaning up in special elections and general elections alike, even in deep red districts, it's because voters are waking up to the bill of goods that they've been sold. Remember, Trump ran on one central promise, affordability. He was going to lower costs on day one. That was the pitch. Vote for me and your groceries will be cheaper, your gas will be cheaper, everything's going to be more affordable. And what happened? The exact opposite.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, grocery prices have risen since Trump took office in January, consumer prices overall are up during Trump's second term. Inflation is down only 2/10 tenths of a point since Biden left office. None of which, of course, is going to stop Trump from lying about it. He claims constantly that grocery prices are way down. They're not. They're up. He claims that inflation is at 2%, it's not. It's at 3%. He claims that gas prices are almost $2. They're over $3 nationally. And even as Trump denies reality, the typical American household is now spending $208 more per month to buy the same goods and services as they did in September of 2024, according to Moody's Analytics. That is $208 bucks more per month.

And when you zoom out even further, the typical household is spending over $1,000 more per month than they did at the start of 2021. $1,000 per month more than when the greatest defender of high prices in history, Joseph R. Biden, was president. Everything Trump trashed Biden on as far as affordability is concerned. Just remember that Donald Trump is literally more expensive than that guy.

But it's not just that costs have come down. Donald Trump is actively making things worse with his tariffs. For example, the Tax Foundation estimated that his tariffs have raised the average American household's cost by 1,200 bucks per year, and that number is expected to rise to $1,600 this year. The average tariff rate has jumped from 2.4% before Trump came back to the White House to 28% at its peak.

That is a massive tax increase on working American families because remember, we are the ones who pay those tariffs. And Trump has the audacity to stand there and tell people that affordability is a con job by the Democrats. And frankly, voters aren't buying it. They're seeing through the which is exactly why Democrats are surging, which is to say nothing of the fact that there's ICE raids and extrajudicial killings and threats to go to war with Greenland and this relentless focus on himself and his ballroom and his jets.

This guy does not give a flying fuck about regular people. And yet Trump's response to all of this has been to deny reality and double down on his lies. Here are some of the latest comments he made on affordability.

Trump: No, but they they caused the problem and then they came up, you know, it's a word that they came up with affordability. Every time you hear the word, remember they're the ones that caused the problem. And uh first time you heard about it was like a few months ago. This election is all about affordability. Well, they're the ones that caused the problem, but nobody knows that. You know, people forget. So they say, "Oh, affordability. Let's vote for the Democrats." It's no affordability. They caused a tremendous price increases. It was caused by the worst inflation we've ever had. And they come up with this word affordability. And I saw it even re although you're not hearing it so much anymore. You know why? Because the prices are coming down so much.

BTC: But while he claims that affordability is suddenly a Democrat hoax or Democrat scam, people know what they pay at the grocery store. They know what their rent costs. They know whether they can afford health care or child care or food. and they're tired, frankly, of being gaslit by a president who lives in a gold-plated penthouse and golfs at his own resorts while they're scraping by.

And here's the other thing. Trump isn't just hurting Americans financially, he's also enriching himself in the process, which obviously does not go unviewed by Americans. So, while families are spending an extra 200 bucks per month just to get by, Trump is showering himself in gold and crypto, profiting off the presidency, using his office to line his own pockets while ordinary Americans suffer. and voters are noticing.

So, look, the Texas race is important not just because Democrats won, but because of what it signals moving forward. It signals that voters are fed up, that they are paying attention, that they're holding Trump and Republicans accountable for breaking their promises. And it signals that Democrats have found a winning message, which is to focus on affordability, call out Republicans hypocrisy, and meet voters where they are.

Because here's the reality. Trump promised to make America affordable again, and instead, he's made it more expensive. He promised to lower costs and instead he's raised them with his tariffs. He promised to deliver for working families and instead he's delivered for himself and his pals. And voters in Texas, in Miami, Tennessee, New Jersey, Virginia, everywhere else are starting to see through it. So, as Trump continues to do everything but deliver for Americans, it is him and his party that are suffering the consequences. And given the fact that Trump can't seem to ever help himself, it looks like this result in Texas may very well be a preview of what's to come this November.

[calimary]

1. Thank you, BTC!

An enjoyable read, and most encouraging! REALLY gives us hope! Especially the last paragraph:

“Because here's the reality. Trump promised to make America affordable again, and instead, he's made it more expensive. He promised to lower costs and instead he's raised them with his tariffs. He promised to deliver for working families and instead he's delivered for himself and his pals. And voters in Texas, in Miami, Tennessee, New Jersey, Virginia, everywhere else are starting to see through it. So, as Trump continues to do everything but deliver for Americans, it is him and his party that are suffering the consequences. And given the fact that Trump can't seem to ever help himself, it looks like this result in Texas may very well be a preview of what's to come this November.“

[Vogon_Glory]

2. What a delightful surprise!

Last edited Sun Feb 1, 2026, 06:47 AM - Edit history (1)

It’s been years since the Texas Democratic Party has been strong enough to do much more than protest when the Texas Republican Party shoves yet another reactionary agenda down the voters’ throats. I realize that the Texas Democratic Party has a long way to go before they’re in a position to block yet more right-wing fever dream proposals,, but it could be a start.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

3. I have been active in Texas politics for a long time and I am still hoping that Texas will turn blue

I have been following some demographic trends for a while that would indicate that Texas should turn blue. Texas is getting older and more urban. Texas was more republican that these trends would indicate in 2024 in large part because Hispanics voted for trump and the GOP in larger numbers than what one would expect. I grew up in or near the Rio Grand Valley that went for trump. I was surprised by this result.

Last night was a great result in a state senate runoff race where a Democrat won a seat by 14 percentage points that trump won by 17 percentage points.

Link to tweet

If this swing was held up nationally, Texas would be blue as would the rest of the country

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This race was largely symbolic in that the next time the next time the Texas legis will be in session will be after the November elections and special elections are not necessarily representative of national/regular elections.

I am encouraged by the fact that Hispanic voters in SD 9 went for the Democrat.

Link to tweet

In Texas, there is a racist tradition called sundown towns where non-whites used to have to be out of the city limits by sundown or face lynching. Vidor Texas is one such city. The democrat in this race flipped a local sundown city in this race

Link to tweet

These results are encouraging to me. I still believe that Texas will turn blue. trump's alienation of Hispanic voters should continue given the current ICE operations.

[Vogon_Glory]

4. Trumpie Latino-bashing probably didn't help either.

Immigrant-bashing and right-wing talking heads talking about “illegal aliens” have been right-wing dog-whistle terms for Hispanics here in Texas, citizen or not, native-born or not. It’s been that way for decades. I assumed that Texas Hispanics were just alert enough to know that.

Well, the 2024 elections disabused me. I guess that the Hispanic voters assumed that the “illegal aliens” that the national Republican and Texas state Republican organizations were talking about were just undocumented folks.

Judging from the results, I’d guess that some voters might have been forcibly re-acquainted with the racism and attitudes that their forebears might have talked about but assumed were dead and gone.

And another thing. I don’t think that the Trumpies have given much thought about Texas demographics. I don’t think that Donald or Stephen or Kristi have considered the consequences of baiting a group estimated to consist of 40 percent of the state’s population. Texas Latinos might have been passive about dog-whistle speeches, but letting the sort of LA, Portland, and Minneapolis goon shows pile up isn’t going to make them think kindly thoughts about the Donald, his minions, or Texas Republicans falling over themselves to be seen as the Donald’s besties.

Texas Republicans have badly served their Latino constituents for decades. They got away with it in part because while they ignored their concerns, they didn’t go out of their way to be hateful. Donnie and Stephen, on the other hand, have amped up dog-whistle to megaphone. Maybe Texas Latinos are being re-awakened to the fact that the bad old days were bad for good reasons.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

5. GOP's gerrymander bet is built on Trump's 2024 Latino surge -- but support is already slipping.

{𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿}: GOP’s gerrymander bet is built on Trump’s 2024 Latino surge — but support is already slipping. Texas seats once thought safe are shaky, and demographic shifts blunt map-rigging. Even with SCOTUS poised to gut the VRA, Dayen notes: maps can’t save an unpopular Trump.

— 𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐉.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐚 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 ¬1É© (@ajsdecepida.bsky.social) 2025-08-30T18:10:10.123Z