Expected inflation in the next 12 months: 5.3%, per Consumer Confidence survey

[progree]

Last edited Tue Jun 25, 2024, 03:42 PM - Edit history (2)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-confidence-ebbs-slightly-june-2024-06-25/

US consumer confidence retreats slightly; house prices remain elevated, Reuters, 6/25/24

... The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dipped to 100.4 this month from a downwardly revised 101.3 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index slipping to 100.0 from the previously reported 102.0.
((Summary: May: 102.0->101.3, June: 100.4 -Progree))

... Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.3% from 5.4% in May

Despite the CPI up 0% in May over April. And the last 3 months averaged 2.8% on an annualized basis. And the widely reported year-over-year figure of 3.3%. And declining

All in the below table are seasonally adjusted and annualized
PCE-Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Fed's favorite inflation measure)
CPI-Consumer Price Index (retail)
PPI-Producer Price Index (Wholesale prices)
They are arranged in chronoloical order



(On the May over April CPI, the regular (non-annualized) increase rounded down to 0.0%. But actually there was a teeny tiny increase, that annualizes to 0.1%)

Maybe I should be glad they don't think its 15.3% or something like that.

All the graphs and data links - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143256073#post2

The May PCE (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, pronounced "pissy" ) comes out this Friday

Not to be confused with the CPI (pronounced "sippy" )

Edited to add: The source:
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped in June to 100.4 (1985=100), down from 101.3 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 141.5 (1985=100) from 140.8 last month.

However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 73.0 (1985=100) in June, down from 74.9 in May. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.

Progree added the bolding above.

So as usual in this survey, they think things are pretty good now (except for inflation) but are going to hell, because, what?

And from one of the graphs: 66% say a recession in the next 12 months is "very likely" or "somewhat likely"