The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here's what to expect

[mahatmakanejeeves]

ECONOMY
The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here's what to expect

PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 17 2024 3:43 PM EST
UPDATED TUE, DEC 17 2024 4:36 PM EST
Jeff Cox
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
@JEFF.COX.7528

KEY POINTS
• Futures market traders are pricing in a near certainty that the Fed on Wednesday will lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point.
• "I'd be inclined to say 'no cut,'" former Kansas City Fed President Esther George said Tuesday during a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview.
• In addition to the rate decision, the Fed will update its "dot plot" of future expectations as well as the collective outlook on the state of the economy.


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Nov. 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

Inflation is stubbornly above target, the economy is growing at about a 3% pace and the labor market is holding strong. Put it all together and it sounds like a perfect recipe for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or at least to stay put.

That's not what is likely to happen, however, when the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting entity, announces its policy decision Wednesday.

{snip}

[Scrivener7]

1. Trump is elected. They'll lower it. It's not non-partisan.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Powell is boxed in, a loser both ways

If they lower, it raises the likelihood they'll need to raise sooner. If they raise, Trump is angry.

There are so many moving parts to Trump's economic manipulation plan. No one will be able to figure out what's going on, including Trump. But they will exploit where they see opportunity.