If there is another major Real Estate related crash, it will start in China (edited)

[A HERETIC I AM]

The obligatory disclaimer;

I am NOT an analyst. I am not a professional trader. I am by no means tuned into the intricacies of the international real estate market.

But what I am, is paying attention.

Witness this particular YouTube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwNPa8fSXzzAZuT9859GVhg

This fellow has several videos about the dismal state of so called "Ghost Cities" in China.

It really doesn't matter whether or not you prefer to believe every single word this guy utters or if you think he is full of shit, the fact remains that there is a shit ton of (edit here) NEWLY BUILT empty housing in China and the quality of the construction is utter crap.

The newly wealthy Chinese middle class have been putting money into real estate like it will go south next week, and in effect, it will. Just not next week...but soon. People have been buying up these apartments and NOT MOVING IN thinking they will be able to sell them at a higher price in the future.

Why?

Because in large part, they don't trust the Chinese stock market or any other investment vehicle available to them, that's why.

My humble prediction is that the next major global downturn will start in China and has the potential to make the US crash of '08 & '09 look like a Pikers walk in the park.

These are the vids that made me think this was relevant;

This one is a year old;

This is a week old;

There are numerous other videos, just search "Chinese Ghost Cities" on YouTube.

[Iliyah]

1. I read something like this before concerning de-value of the dollar

coupled with what is written above.

China won't be the only country that will face recession/depression.

[EndGOPPropaganda]

2. A Chinese crash will spread to the US

Because there is a ton of Chinese money in US real estate.

Here’s the sequence:
Chinese crash
Chinese individuals pull money from the US
US crash

[A HERETIC I AM]

3. You missed a step or 2;

Here’s the sequence:
Chinese crash
Chinese individuals pull money from the US
US crash

Revised;

Here’s the sequence:
Chinese crash
Chinese central banks flood the market with their US Treasury holdings in a desperate search for liquidity.
Chinese individuals pull money from the US
US Treasury Market collapses
US crash
Worldwide crash

I'm not far off I think. China has been unloading their Treasuries over the last 24 months such that they are no longer the largest holder - Japan is now.

The Chinese have been looking for hard , reliable, tradeable currency for quite a while. The Ren Min Bi is shit on the international currency market and they know it. They want to be a dominant economic force worldwide. They have been slugging money into Africa as an example, at an alarming rate, yet it seems in many ways their own economy is working on a tether.