The Guardian: China's CO2 emissions have peaked or will in 2025, say 44% of experts in survey
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/27/chinas-co2-emissions-have-peaked-or-will-in-2025-say-44-of-experts-in-surveyResearch reflects rising optimism about country’s green transition as it takes leading position on climate action
Amy Hawkins
Tue 26 Nov 2024 19.01 EST
Nearly half of experts surveyed by a climate thinktank believe China’s carbon dioxide emissions have already peaked, or will do so in 2025, reflecting increasing optimism about the country’s green transition at a time when it is being called on to take a leading position on global climate action.
According to a report published on Tuesday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a research organisation, 44% of climate experts from academia and industry believe that China’s CO2 emissions will peak, at the latest, in 2025. In last year’s survey, only 21% of experts gave the same response.
There is also more optimism about China reducing its reliance on coal. Asked if they believed that its coal consumption had already peaked, 36% of experts said yes, up from 20% last year.
China’s official targets are to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Beijing has also pledged to “strictly control” the use of coal during the 14th ”five-year plan”, which covers the period until the end of 2025.
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It doesn't go over all that well with people who can't think clearly, no matter how much effort one puts into the effort; all such effort being as much of a waste of time as, say, spending trillions of dollars on a reactionary effort to return the world's energy supplies to dependence on the weather, at precisely the time these reactionaries have worked to destabilize the weather by their studied indifference to fossil fuels.
Still we persist.
Still, it's amusing on some level, if one can be amused by the destruction of the planet, as clearly indicated by the numbers in my previous post.
A credulous rube looks at soothsaying and considers them to be "facts."
For example, I frequently post this graphic, which is a nice summary of the 2024 EIA WEO, similar to the tables in all of the IEA WEO's of the 21st century, all of which I have in my files:
IEA World Energy Outlook 2024
Table A.1a: World energy supply Page 296.
Now, as an educated and well read person, as someone who has lived a long time, through lots of “by 1990,” “by 2000,” “by 2010,” “by 2020,” and now “by 2030,” “by 2040,” “by 2050,” or as the ethically withered morons at Greenpeace would have it, “by 2100,” soothsaying about the outbreak of a so called "renewable energy" nirvana.
It's not like I didn't suffer through the senile rhetoric of the extremely ignorant antinuke Harvey Wasserman, who predicted a Solartopia "by 2030," just six years from now in the early part of this century. (2006).
All of these airheads, this celebrants of wishful thinking, confuse soothsaying with reality.
Now, if one is literate, one is capable of making a distinction between reality and soothsaying (with healthy dollops of wishful thinking), something which is clearly troublesome for some people. All of the entries to the right of the column headed "2023" in the tables above are soothsaying, a la Harvey Wasserman, dumb shit antinuke. They should not be confused with facts. Incredibly, however, we see people, disingenuous poorly read credulous rubes who do actively embrace such confusion.
We can prevent the outcome posited by soothsaying by acting. If in 2050, as predicted in the soothsaying column of the table above, nuclear energy is only producing 49 Exajoules, and dangerous coal is still producing 94 Exajoules, dangerous natural gas 152 Exajoules, and Oil, 176 Exajoules, the planet is fucked. To me, but apparently not to the withered brains who think tearing the shit out of the Earth's remaining wilderness to get to 84 Exajoules of Solar Energy "by 2050" might be a good idea, it's pretty clear it won't happen, not because we will overcome antinuke ignorance, superstition and irrational "Robert F. Kennedy Jr." type fear, but because civilization will collapse from extreme global heating.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving day, perhaps, with a solar powered oven. It wouldn't do to well here in NJ, where after an intense drought induced by global heating, I'm sure, we finally have some rain, and the clouds will make solar dependent ovens - should there actually be some - pretty ineffective.
By Gavin Maguire
November 27, 2024 11:48 AM EST
LITTLETON, Colorado, Nov 27 (Reuters) - China's power firms are on track to cut coal's share of annual electricity generation to below 60% for the first time in 2024, which would mark a major milestone in the country's efforts to transition energy production away from fossil fuels.
Reduced coal reliance by the world's second-largest economy is a rare bright spot this year for climate trackers, who were disappointed by the recent COP29 meetings and are bracing for the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Accord next year.
And given that China's absolute levels of coal-fired generation are at record highs and still rising, the decline in coal's share of China's power mix might appear insignificant.
China raises coal-fired output, but cuts coal's share in electricity generation mix
But as China accounts for roughly 40% of all power emissions from fossil fuels, sustained reductions to coal's use in Chinese power production are critical if worldwide pollution trends are to be reversed.
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