Russia's Private Armies Panic as Oil Money Burns - Jason Jay Smart

[TexasTowelie]

Russia’s war is now colliding with three hard limits at the same time: a war built on an intelligence lie, a collapsing stream of oil money, and a powerful internal region that only stays loyal as long as the cash flows.

This episode begins with a rare admission on Russian television. A former ground forces commander confirms that the invasion of Ukraine was sold to the Kremlin with a fantasy, that 70% of Ukrainians would welcome a pro-Moscow regime. Instead, the "3 day operation" became a grinding war that drains soldiers, budgets, and political authority.

From there, we follow the money. Sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries and "shadow fleet" oil tankers are crushing profits at Russia’s biggest energy companies. The Kremlin is forcing major banks to absorb toxic debt while ordinary Russians pull $6.5 billion USD in cash out of the system.

All of this converges on a key region in Russia’s south, a small republic roughly the size of Connecticut, run as a personal fiefdom by a strongman loyal to Putin. Ukrainian drones are now striking this region’s capital, and with oil revenues shrinking, the question becomes whether a bankrupt Kremlin can still afford to keep its own private armies loyal.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 – A War Built on a Lie
00:46 – Russia’s Financial Engine Failing
01:38 – Why Chechnya Suddenly Matters
02:22 – Drones Expose Russia’s Southern Vulnerability
03:12 – The Human Cost: 1,000 Soldiers a Day
03:52 – Intelligence Failure Admitted
04:33 – Three Crises Converge
05:05 – How the Chechen System Was Built
06:00 – Tribute State: Loyalty for Cash
06:45 – Feudal Russia in the Modern Age
07:26 – Fragility Revealed in the 2023 Mutiny
08:25 – Kremlin Arms the National Guard
09:05 – Rival Armies Inside Russia
09:40 – Oil Profits Collapse and Tankers Stall
10:28 – The Budget Crisis Deepens
11:10 – Regional Finances Breaking Down
11:52 – Banking System Under Stress
12:33 – Russians Pull Cash in Panic
13:05 – Admission of the 70 Percent Lie
13:33 – Russia Near Its Most Unstable Moment
14:10 – What Comes Next
14:40 – Final Call to Action