U.S. intelligence says Iran's regime is consolidating power

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Despite more than two weeks of relentless airstrikes, U.S. intelligence assessments say, Iran’s regime likely will remain in place for now, weakened but more hard-line, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces exerting greater control.

The United States and Israel have significantly degraded Iran’s missile capability and navy, removed the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and wiped out scores of top military and intelligence leaders. But the war’s costs are mounting — at least $12 billion so far and 13 U.S. troops killed. Iran’s viselike grip on the Strait of Hormuz has slowed shipping traffic to a trickle, creating a historic oil disruption.

Western officials and analysts who study Iran said they see little near-term prospect of a “regime change” end to the 47-year-old Islamic republic or the rise of a more democratic government. The latter is a goal cited by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and sometimes by President Donald Trump, who has said he’ll know the war is over “when I feel it in my bones.”

U.S. intelligence assessments issued since the war began predict Iran’s regime will remain intact and possibly even emboldened, believing it stood up to Trump and survived, according to two people familiar with the assessments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. U.S. Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, meanwhile, are angered and alarmed at being the targets of retaliatory barrages of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/16/iran-regime-intelligence-irgc-war/

[BootinUp]

1. And somebody is making a ton of money on our asses - whoohoo. nt

[littlemissmartypants]

2. Gee..

I sure hope nobody decides to take a blunt object to those bones.

[RockRaven]

3. Why listen to subject matter experts when you can listen to a guy who has repeatedly manipulated you for his own ends,

and your ignorant son in law, and an incompetent toady?
(that is Netanyahu, Kushner, and Witkoff respectively)


"Nobody could have seem this development coming!"

Nobody except everyone who actually studies that country professionally.

[stopdiggin]

4. anybody that had even the slightest inkling - that this action would result in regime change ...

was smoking the really good stuff - in quantities.
A hardening of position - and corresponding solidification of power - were the absolutely predictable ...

And - any marginally credible analyst or middle-east observer would have told you that in advance. Had anybody bothered to listen. Yes, there are lots of people unhappy with the Iran government - today, yesterday, even last year. But ... Bombing the crap out of them doesn't provide any impetus ... And most probably sets back any potential internal movement - by years if not decades.