How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

[Mosby]

The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’ figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was “over 25,000.” The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary “was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.” President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that “too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children.” The White House also explained that the president “was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties.”

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

The anaysis points to three aspects of the data that strongly suggest the numbers are being fabricated. First, the increases have been virtually linear, which doesn't seem plausible given the dynamics of a war. The author of the piece was able to create a linear function that mirrors the increases exactly. That shouldn't be possible with real world events.

Second the relationship between women's deaths and children's deaths should be highly correlated, but their not, the R² is .017 which is not statistically significant.

Lastly, the numbers of women vs. men deaths are negatively correlated, which is exactly the reverse of what is expected.

Along with other anomalies, it's pretty obvious that the death numbers are fabricated.

[TheRickles]

1. Not according to this recent article in the Lancet, one of the most esteemed medical journals in the world.

"No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health".

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext|
(NB: This URL might have to be copied and pasted in full, as the direct link doesn't seem to work)

I'll go with the peer-reviewed medical journal over a professor of sports analytics.

[Mosby]

4. That letter to the editor

Is doing nothing more than a pair wise comparison between hamas fatality numbers and UNWRA numbers.

It's stupid.

They don't address the linearity of the numbers, or the inconsistencies between death totals of men women and children.

[Tetrachloride]

2. Obvious?

[Mosby]

9. "Likely" would have been a better word choice.

I'm not a good writer.

I'm just happy when I put together a coherent paragraph.

[Tetrachloride]

12. I didn't learn good paragraphs consistently for decades.

I knew more about woofs and meows until "recently."

[Bucky]

3. AnalysisAlJazeera: "As Israel escalates Gaza war, its 'kill-rate' claims don't add up"

This article reminds me of one from Al Jazeera few months ago

Analysis: As Israel escalates Gaza war, its ‘kill-rate’ claims don’t add up
The claims, aimed at fending off criticism over civilian casualties paint a picture of the war that makes no sense.
By ,orange Kusovac | 9 Dec 2023

Israel is trying to fend off accusations of indiscriminately killing civilians, but its claims make little sense. Earlier this week at a briefing in Israel, an official said that a Hamas fighter was killed for every two civilians, suggesting that this was a better combatant-to-civilian kill ratio than most armies in recent wars.

{snip}

But for almost any military a constant loss ratio of greater than 30:1 in operations that last more than a month on at least two distinct, if connected, battlefields — in north and south Gaza — would be a sure sign of an imminent total collapse.

Even allowing for the high motivation of ideologically recruited Hamas fighters, it would still be hard to imagine that they would continue fighting after such losses.

“I see the signs that indicate [Hamas] is beginning to break in Gaza,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told troops he was visiting on Friday.

Gallant’s claim was either an exaggeration or an optimistic attempt to boost his soldiers’ morale. In reality, it is obvious that Hamas fights on — in a way that would not be possible if it were losing as many fighters as Israel claims to be killing.

I would suggest that making an argument that one is, ya know, not really killing all that many people when one is obviously killing a whole lot of innocent people is not a good look. It's the sort of thing that if you quibble about it, it comes off almost as cold as, say, an urban bombing campaign.

I would also suggest that the US State Department is not accepting the Gaza government's Health Ministry's numbers for frivolous reasons. If they had reservations about the accuracy of the numbers, I think we would have heard it by now. If the Israeli's had concrete rather than speculative evidence about Gaza significantly inflating the numbers, I feel like they would have presented it by now.

[lapucelle]

7. We heard the reservations on February 29.

Pentagon walks back Austin's Gaza casualty figures
February 29, 2024

WASHINGTON, Feb 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress on Thursday that more than 25,000 women and children had been killed by Israel in Gaza since October 7, but the Pentagon later clarified that estimate, saying the figure came from the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, not U.S. intelligence.

During a congressional hearing, Austin was asked how many Palestinian women and children had been killed by Israel and Austin replied: "It is over 25,000."

A few hours later, Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokesperson, said that Austin was citing an estimate from the Gaza health ministry and was referring to total Palestinians killed, not just women and children.

"We cannot independently verify these Gaza casualty figures," Singh said in a statement.

https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-29-2024/

==================================================

Department Press Briefing – February 29, 2024

MR MILLER: So I have seen the comments by the Secretary of Defense. I haven’t seen them in full, so I will refer you to the Department of Defense to discuss exactly what he meant. But I will say whatever the exact number is of civilians that have been killed, it is far too high, which is what you heard me addressing a moment ago, and which is why we continue to try to perceive a temporary ceasefire that would alleviate that suffering.

snip=======================================

QUESTION: First of all, are you suggesting that maybe the Defense Secretary got it wrong?

MR MILLER: No, I’m suggesting that for comments about the things the Defense Secretary said, you should take that up with the spokesperson for the Defense Department, who does have a daily briefing and I’m sure will be happy to talk about —

snip----------------------------------

QUESTION: So how many civilians do you think – how many women and children —

MR MILLER: I don’t – I don’t have a further estimate to offer.

https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-29-2024/

[BootinUp]

5. From an October 26 article in TIME

From an October 26 article in TIME

“I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s a price of waging a war,” Biden said at a press conference on Wednesday. “But I have no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using.” The President didn’t offer further evidence for his skepticism of the Palestinian health ministry's data, which the U.S. State Department has cited both internally and publicly, in the latter case as recently as March. (When asked to provide evidence to support Biden's statement, the White House referred TIME to comments made by U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, who on Thursday reiterated the President’s assertion that the death toll cannot be taken “at face value” because the “Gaza Ministry of Health is just a front for Hamas.”)

“Hamas has a clear propaganda incentive to inflate civilian casualties as much as possible,” Luke Baker, a former Reuters bureau chief who led the organization’s coverage of Israel and the Palestinian territories from 2014 to 2017, said in a recent X thread. (Baker declined to comment to TIME.) Like Biden, Baker does not dispute that civilian deaths have occurred. Rather, he says that the extent of the death toll is unverifiable and that those tasked with tracking casualties in Gaza may not be able to do so freely. “Any health official stepping out of line and not giving the death tolls that Hamas wants reported to journalists risks serious consequences,” Baker said.

https://time.com/6328885/gaza-death-toll-explainer/

[BootinUp]

6. Came back to read and rec. I think the analysis does have merit. nt

[qwlauren35]

8. I always thought this was possible.

I would love a verifiable number from an impartial source.

I wouldn't believe Hamas number.

I wouldn't believe IDFs number.

There are reporters on the ground and there are UN representatives. And there is probably US aerial footage. I would trust that more.

I will try to expand my phrase to "Hamas' estimate of 25,000" or more recently, "Hamas' estimate of 27,000". Or is it 30,000. I've lost track.

I know it's a lot. I'm sure it's thousands. But after that, it gets fuzzy.

One thing is for sure - the IDF has not killed enough Hamas terrorists for them to surrender. And that really pisses me off. I really want this gigantic killing orgy to be over. Yes, I know that Hamas started it with a killing orgy.

[Mosby]

10. According to Israel

They have eliminated ~13,000 Hamas members.

[qwlauren35]

11. We may never know an accurate number.

Hamas isn't going to confirm or deny something like that.

Obviously it suggests that over half of the people killed are not "innocent", if indeed 25,000 people have been killed - which is also suspect.

The whole thing is just one gigantic mess. Hamas started it; Israel is taking it to a whole new level.