AMOC: Atlantic circulation collapse? Part 2: The Evidence and Discussion

[SorellaLaBefana]

Image of meltwater pouring from the Greenland Ice Sheet and diluting the ocean surface with freshwater therefore changing its density which affects the Atlantic’s water circulation

…In October 2024…[many] climate scientists from Europe, Australia, Asia, and North America to release a widely publicized open letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers (see PDF). This letter pointed to what the scientists termed a “serious risk of a major ocean circulation change in the Atlantic. A string of scientific studies in the past few years suggests that this risk has so far been greatly underestimated. Such an ocean circulation change would have devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world.”…

It’s not yet game over for the AMOC. As we discussed in part one of this post, the actual observations of 3D AMOC flow through the North Atlantic are still too brief to separate natural variations from long-term trends. And a modest decrease observed over the last 40 years has just been revised in an even more modest direction…

There are myriad ways to adapt to climate change that’s already unfolding or imminent, many of them spotlighted here at Yale Climate Connections, such as moving to higher ground and making communities more heat-resilient. It’s far less clear how one might prepare at this point for a possible AMOC collapse, given the huge uncertainties in both the timing and details of potential impacts.

Perhaps the best way to channel AMOC anxiety would be to work toward emission reductions that could help prevent or at least forestall an AMOC collapse in the first place…

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/12/how-much-should-you-worry-about-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-conveyor-belt/

This is Part 2, Part one was posted on the Climate Connection site yesterday
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/12/atlantic-circulation-collapse-new-clues-on-the-fate-of-a-crucial-conveyor-belt/

And linked on DU https://www.democraticunderground.com/122891148

This second part examines in some detail what the most current studies show to be the most probable future of the AMOC. Also discussed are the opinions of some individual climate researchers as well as the statements of scientific consensus groups.

Though I do not have the training to understand and to evaluate these studies, the overall conclusions do seem to converge on the probability that this vital oceanic circulation will dramatically weaken as the world warms and the northern hemisphere’s ice melts.

[Think. Again.]

1. K&R