My Prediction On The Fed & Interest Rates

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5. his term are chair expires may 2026. if donnie isn't happy with what he does in 2025, he can just wait until then.

the market is currently reflecting what the fed is saying, which is the there will more likely than not be only one or even no cuts in 2025.

the fed is constantly revising its views based on the economic data, of course, so this may change. but most of donnie's proposals and likely actual policies are inflationary, and in the case of tariffs, massively so. if they look likely to pass in a way even close to matching his extreme rhetoric, this would trigger serious inflation that would make the post-pandemic inflation that biden/powell largely tamed a joke.

the fed would then unanimously support a series of rate increases. any cuts would be pouring gasoline on the fire.

the billionaires backing donnie are fine with washington looking like a circus, but they need to have confidence in the fed. if the fed triggers inflation or fails to fight inflation, a *lot* of republican bigwigs will be pissed.

it's the one area i don't think donnie can clown around with and get away with it.