George Clooney narrates ad for Harris - months after writing damning op-ed calling for Biden to quit race

[Novara]

23. Polling is completely fucked.

And it has been since 2016. They overcorrected in 2020 from 2016, and it appears they are again overcorrecting in 2024, but in the opposite direction.

I believe Harris will win. And I suspect it will not be close in most states.

The polls that show it tied? Not credible. Look at the ground game, look at the yard signs, look at the crowds filling huge venues for the Dem candidate. Look at your local events for each candidate. Look at the money raised by each campain. What you actually see with your own eyes doesn't look like a statistical tie. Right?

Polls are inexact at best, and completely false at worst. Most pollsters have a lean or bias, and most have an agenda. Polling is a science and an art, and what questions they ask, the sample size, the demographics, the confidence level, and most of all, the weighting can skew a poll from favorable to one candidate and unfavorable to the other. And then the next one will report something opposite. They tweak their weighting and they are still getting it wrong. I am anticipating the sturm and drang of pollsters crying about how they could be so wrong after this election too. Then they will overcorrect for 2028.

I look at trends. Are most of them going in one direction? That's maybe a general guidepost, but again, that isn't definitive. I look at VoteHub, which aggregates polls that are rated A+ to B- only. And even most of their results are well within the margin of error, and some experts believe that margin of error should actually be doubled. I'm not sure how they rate pollsters so I even take that with a grain of salt.

Best advice? Don't rely on individual polls. Look around you to see what's happening.