George Clooney narrates ad for Harris - months after writing damning op-ed calling for Biden to quit race

[BumRushDaShow]

25. I don't "do polls"

You might have noticed the graphic in my sigline (if you have that option turned on) -



You can't even go by the "trends" anymore. The issue is that the GOP and their conservative boot-lickers, have commissioned dozens and dozens of skewed individual "polls" that get fed into the aggregators. The aggregators arrogantly proclaim that "they correct for that".

No they don't.

In general, there are more "national polls" than "state polls" so when you suddenly get some "extra" state polls from fly-by-night, just-got-started pollsters, they are all over those, and throw them into the pile.

The aggregators end up with garbage and that feeds "the narrative" for the gasbags on teevee. I.e., they use the Nate Silver credos -

Link to tweet

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
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I'd rather gouge my eyes out than debate the merits of individual election polls or pollsters. Take the average and trust the process.
2:21 PM · Sep 10, 2022

Meanwhile -

Link to tweet

David Brauer
·
Dec 31, 2022
@dbrauer
·
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“The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters & the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of right-wing media outlets … And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times …”
jimrutenberg
@jimrutenberg
About That Red Wave
W/⁦@kenbensinger⁩ ⁦@SteveEder⁩ https://nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
David Brauer
@dbrauer
·
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“Other pollsters lacked experience, like two high-school juniors in Pennsylvania who started Patriot Polling and quickly found their surveys included on the statistical analysis website 538 — as did another high school concern based at Phillips Academy in Andover, Mass.”
9:34 AM · Dec 31, 2022

They are trying to do a repeat because it worked so well in 2022 to help divert money from those who could use the boost, to those that are "safe seats" -

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

By Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder
Dec. 31, 2022

Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.

So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.

(snip)

Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats.

A similar sequence of events played out in battlegrounds nationwide. Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force. Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points.

(snip)

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

What is THANKFULLY different this year is that so much money was raised by Democrats and in such a short time, that $$$ could be spread around much better.

Have you noticed some terminology that is usually "standard" in the narrative, have barely appeared in print or on air? Like "enthusiasm gap" or "red wave" or "blue wave"?

It's a shame that we will have to go by "anecdotal" information, although many of us are in "bubble" areas where we WILL either see "more blue" or "more red". But I would think the delta (change) from election season to election season, of those anecdotes, would have some kind of useful meaning.