University of Wyoming analysis argues social distancing outweighs alternative by $5.2 trillion

[Ford_Prefect]

https://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/university-of-wyoming-analysis-argues-social-distancing-outweighs-alternative-by-5-2-trillion/article_27fe4198-b477-5bbc-afdb-f75a793ecdc5.html

A University of Wyoming analysis found that social distancing efforts to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus outweigh the economic costs of such measures by trillions of dollars, while also saving more than a million lives.

The researchers, led by a UW economist, found "that social distancing policies likely do not constitute an overreaction to COVID-19. In a variety of plausible scenarios based on the best available information as of April 3, 2020, we find that the economic benefits of lives saved outweigh the value of the projected losses of GDP by about $5.2 trillion," the authors wrote in article that will be published by a Cambridge University journal.

The analysis comes amid a national debate about the impacts of social distancing and whether its benefits are worth the economic implications. Last month, President Donald Trump tweeted that the "cure" — social distancing and shutdowns of many businesses and states — "cannot ... be worse than the problem itself." In Wyoming, some officials — like Gillette Republican Rep. Scott Clem — have urged Gov. Mark Gordon to loosen up restrictions on the economy, simultaneously minimizing the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. (In a Facebook post Monday, Clem compared Cheyenne to the Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler because the city was considering fining people for violating public health orders.)

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It projects a multi-trillion dollar benefit from social distancing compared to the country not enacting the measures. It also indicates that more than 1.2 million lives will be saved, both as a direct result of decreased mortality from the disease itself and as a result of the health care system not being overrun by a wave of coronavirus patients.

"Based on our ... model, the total number of infections is projected to reach 287 million without social distancing and 188 million with social distancing," Thunstrom and her colleagues wrote. "When combined with the differential mortality rates when the health system capacity threshold is exceeded versus when not, the difference between the infection curves translates into about 1.24 million lives saved."

The analysis assumes that the nation's economy will begin to open up in the coming months and that, should there be a second wave of coronavirus cases later this year, there will be treatments available to blunt its impact. Thunstrom told the Star-Tribune that if the economy takes longer to reopen or if a second wave is as severe as this current pandemic, then the model would be readjusted and could "flip" its findings that social distancing is a positive.

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Of course there are those with vested interests who will dispute the facts, and willingly ignore how gravity, momentum, and math apply to economics and pandemics.

But still...Money is money and Dead is dead, right?