Who are you planning to vote for on the 23rd?

[Denzil_DC]

11. I was curious about the 50% switcher target.

I suppose they're trying to seem realistic (if even that goal's being realistic), but from a campaigning point of view, it might be better to give a 100% switcher set of results - "this is what we could achieve" - as the differences in those charts aren't too inspiring: 60-10 Leave-Remain without tactical voting, 54-16 Leave-Remain with. This is, of course, accepting the framing that votes for the Tories and Labour are Leave votes, whereas the parties are evidently hardly monolithic. (I wonder if anyone's polled the actual MEP candidates?!)

As far as I can figure out Corbyn's line from today's launch, he's now in favour of a people's vote, but only within parameters that would exclude Remain as an option!

I have a very faint hope that the polls are overstating the Brexit Party's support. There's plenty of time for a few cock-ups, in-fights and developments between now and polling day, and as I keep saying, D'Hondt is a slippery system (UKIP got their only Scottish MEP last time largely because of internecine counter-(tactical) voting between Labour and the SNP!).

In the end, it will probably hinge on turnout (low turnouts in Euro elections being how UKIP gained a foothold in the first place and part of the reason we're in this current mess) more than any attempts at co-ordinated tactical voting.

As a personal choice, I'd vote for the party with a decent list of prospective MEPs. How we conduct ourselves as (tentative if) we leave the EU could be significant for the future. Do we really want our parting face to be Farage's ugly physog and the hangers-on he's attracted?