Remainers won these elections - and they'd win a second Brexit referendum

[Ghost Dog]

What happens next is outlandish. About 100,000 of an ageing tribe, whose party scraped a derisory 9% in the European elections, are about to choose the next prime minister for all the rest of the UK’s 46 million voters. The Conservative party, which likes to call itself “the most successful party in the western world”, is now funded more lavishly by the legacies of its dead members than by its living ones. The keys to Downing Street have been handed on before in this high-handed monarchical manner without an election, but that doesn’t make it any less disgracefully undemocratic, as with so much of our failing constitution. Avoiding the legitimacy of election did Gordon Brown no good at all, giving him the hunted air of an insecure Richard the Third-ish usurper. The success of both the Brexit party and the Liberal Democrats’ “Bollocks to Brexit” riposte has obliterated the illusions of middle-ground, fence-sitting compromisers. Tory fears of the Nigel Farage surge will make it all the more likely that the crown falls into Boris Johnson’s incapable hands. The new prime minister’s lack of legitimacy will be a serious weakness, after the party scored its lowest vote since 1832.

That abysmal result will see the Tories move heaven and earth not to call a self-immolating general election, which would let the Farage hordes on to their Westminster turf. But with the same cast of MPs, the new prime minister inherits the same parliamentary maze, an Escher drawing of impossible hyperbolic geometry where each staircase leads back to an infinite beginning. Extraordinary that a Tory chancellor of the exchequer says he may bring down his own government with a vote of no confidence if any step is taken towards the no-deal Brexit stair. Yet the new leader will have been chosen on a promise to take exactly that stairway to hell... Trapped in the same paralysis as Theresa May, what happens next? The new leader will reach an impasse where going back to the people is the only escape parliament can agree: a referendum will look less alarming than a general election to both main parties. Instead of a mauling by Farage, the Tories would share his hard Brexit platform in a final conflict in this long culture war.

This is the only way to cauterise the gaping national split and confront once and for all the many dark issues that lurk beneath the nativist Brexit idea. By now, escaping from Brexit altogether offers a better long-term chance of recovery for the Tory party than being for ever branded with the dire consequences of a no-deal economic disaster.

In these elections remain was the winner, not Farage. What mattered beyond the number of seats won was the sum of remain votes. Lib Dem, Green, Scottish National party, Plaid Cymru and Change UK outpolled Brexit and Ukip by 40.4% remain to 34.9% hard Brexit. Now add in Labour and Conservative votes, divided – as pollsters Britain Thinks and YouGov suggest – by allocating 80% of Tory votes to leave, and 60% of Labour votes to remain. That suggests a remain win in a referendum by 50% to 47%. Certain? Of course not – it’s close – but this three-point remain majority certainly makes it a democratic outrage to press ahead with any kind of Brexit without giving voters the final say. And what is not in doubt is that there’s a clear majority against a no-deal Brexit...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/28/remainers-eu-elections-second-brexit-referendum