From 18 August 2018:
Why have Boris Johnson's constituents changed their minds on Brexit?
In February 2016, the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip infamously typed out two newspaper columns, one declaring support for remaining in the European Union, one for leaving. A truth that MP is keen to perpetuate and the public vaguely content to indulge is that the moment the Leave column and not the Remain one was copied, pasted and emailed in to his editors at the Daily Telegraph comment desk was the moment that changed history.
Whether the great question Boris Johnson toyed with from above his laptop screen that day concerned the nation’s best interests or his own is a matter of some disagreement. But at the premature end of a stint as the worst foreign secretary in the country’s history, it would nevertheless still appear that Brexit has turned out to be in Mr Johnson’s interests. He remains favourite to succeed Theresa May as prime minister, after all.
But curiously, his constituents, having allied their interests with his own on the 23 June 2016 appear to have had a change of heart. Uxbridge and South Ruislip is one of 112 constituencies that, according to new research, has changed its mind on Brexit. Having backed Leave on 23 June 2016 by a narrow margin, it has now swung back in favour of Remain, albeit not by much. According to focaldata, Mr Johnson’s constituency was once 57.9 per cent in favour of leaving the European Union. Now is it 51.3 per cent in favour of remaining.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-ruislip-a8495926.html
From 20 July:
Boris Johnson Could Become The First PM To Lose His Seat. This Is How.
When Boris Johnson was looking for a constituency to be parachuted into at the end of his tenure as London mayor, the west London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip suited him very nicely.
The well-to-do town at the end of the Metropolitan line was widely regarded as true blue territory and it wasn’t too far from either Westminster or Islington where he lived at the time. But as Johnson prepares to become prime minister, concerns are mounting in the party that he might not actually be a shoo-in to hold the seat at the next general election.
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That poll could come sooner than anticipated if he presses ahead with a no-deal Brexit against the wishes of most MPs. Speculation is swirling in Westminster of a no confidence motion being tabled within weeks of him taking office, or Johnson calling an election himself in the autumn amid deadlock in parliament.
Meanwhile rival parties in Uxbridge are circling. Momentum, the pro-Jeremy Corbyn campaign group, is holding an “Unseat Boris” event in the town on Sunday, where hundreds of activists are expected to knock on doors for the Labour candidate, Ali Milani. Labour is confident it can win over enough disgruntled voters to wrestle the seat away from Johnson, not least because his majority was halved at the last snap election in 2017.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/boris-johnson-uxbridge
From 24 July:
“We’ll just see even less of him here”: Could Boris Johnson lose his seat?
In Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the new Tory leader has the smallest constituency majority of any prime minister since 1924.
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In 2017, Johnson’s majority more than halved to 5,034. He is now the prime minister with the lowest local majority since 1924, when Labour PM Ramsay MacDonald held Aberavon by 2,100 votes.
The Tory think tank Onward identified Uxbridge & South Ruislip as a “vulnerable” seat in an April report because of the young to old ratio tipping ever further from the Conservatives’ favour.
Now in Tory/Labour marginal territory, it’s a target seat for London Labour. Johnson’s Labour rival in the seat, a 25-year-old called Ali Milani (who I’ve interviewed in this week’s issue of the New Statesman), shows me the latest polling on his phone.
It’s a national ComRes poll from May extrapolated to show the Tories coming third in the seat, behind the Brexit Party.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/we-ll-just-see-even-less-him-here-could-boris-johnson-lose-his-seat
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