What's the current thinking of the damage from Brexit ?

[LeftishBrit]

3. These are the likely consequences if we leave without a deal

The consequences of Boris' proposed deal would be bad but not quite that bad. Estimates are that it would reduce GDP by something like 3.5%.

Leaving with a deal would probably avert the acute problems of medicine and food shortages, but there would still be the problem of the already-understaffed health and social care professions becoming even more understaffed, when EU citizens (who, contrary to the stereotypes, are providers more than users of such medical help and care) leave or decide not to come. It's already happening to some extent. Ditto for agricultural workers. The fall in the pound relative to the euro has reduced the incentive for coming to work here, even before taking into account concerns about xenophobia, the uncertainties of EU citizens' future here, etc.

As I've been saying since 2016, we seem determined to be the first country in history to impose economic sanctions on itself.