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BootinUp

(49,209 posts)
6. PCE charts might be a better indicator
Sun May 12, 2024, 08:02 PM
May 2024

The chart at this New York Fed link looks at PCE and also attemtps to reduce statistical noise.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct#--:mct-inflation:trend-inflation

screenshot of December to March here https://1drv.ms/i/s!AuZvhwK6zdfIi0APz4AapPr1jbkz?e=yg3fjl


CPI vs PCE
There are two common measures of inflation in the US today: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The CPI probably gets more press, in that it is used to adjust social security payments and is also the reference rate for some financial contracts, such as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and inflation swaps. The Federal Reserve, however, states its goal for inflation in terms of the PCE.

The two measures, though following broadly similar trends, are certainly not identical. In general, the CPI tends to report somewhat higher inflation. Since 2000, prices as measured by the CPI have risen by 39 percent, while those measured by the PCE have risen by 31 percent, leading to differing average annual inflation rates of 2.4 and 1.9 percent. In this century, then, CPI inflation has run about half a percentage point higher than PCE inflation. When calculated from 1960 the difference is almost the same, 3.9 percent for the CPI and 3.4 percent for the PCE. Since 2008, however, the difference has been smaller, 1.7 percent and 1.4 percent.

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