30Y Mortgage rate 6.91%, highest level since early July. AND NO, INTEREST RATES ARE NOT COMING DOWN

[nmmi]

8. Enough people are qualifying for mortgages to keep prices going up, and have been for years

Pro tip: instead of tracking prices, try tracking sales volume, especially region by region- that will tell you more about the state of the market.

Protip: the reason for low sales volume is because relatively few homeowners are putting their houses on market, because they will then lose the existing lower interest rate mortgage that they have (the "golden handcuff effect" ). That problem will only get worse with higher mortgage rates. Mortgages are not portable: one can't keep their old mortgage rate when buying another home (and the new buyer doesn't get the old mortgage rate either).

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/why-many-homeowners-feel-trapped-by-low-rate-mortgages.html

Why so many Americans feel trapped in their homes by their low-rate mortgages, CNBC, 8/1/23
Key Points
The recent spike in mortgage rates has created a so-called golden handcuff effect.
Nearly 82% of homeowners feel “locked-in” by their existing low-rate mortgage, according to data from Realtor.com.
In the meantime, the shortage of homes for sale is pushing up prices.

That was more than a year ago, but the same dynamic explains the way low number of houses on the market, and thus low sales volumes, from recent articles I've read. I'm sure I can find more recent ones, and so can you.

Edited to add A Google search restricted to the last 5 months:
https://www.google.com/search?q=home+prices+and+golden+handcuff&num=10&sca_esv=23184657c50a9b5a&sxsrf=ADLYWIJPw2G9gvp3rBJbO-zSYrzTia6AYw%3A1735854171528&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A8%2F1%2F2024%2Ccd_max%3A1%2F2%2F2025&tbm=
[/edit]

The 4.7% increase in median price this year is barely above inflation.

Year-over-year Inflation (Nov'24 (the latest) over Nov'23) is up 2.7%
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

That's 1.7X the inflation rate. It might seem barely above inflation to you, but to someone buying a home, its quite a burden.

What matters is the mortgage payment and other house-related costs, like property tax and home insurance. I see no evidence of these expenses are about to collapse, or even to fall below the rate of inflation, but we'll have to see what happens after January 20.