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Peak Oil

In reply to the discussion: What Happened to Peak Oil? [View all]

MikeBlack

(1 post)
2. Just look at the price...
Thu Sep 13, 2012, 07:58 AM
Sep 2012

The demand half of supply & demand is itself is made up of two components; desire for the item plus the ability to pay. After a certain point – the point where supply can no longer meet demand – price is determined completely by the ability to pay.

The 52 week average price for Brent is about US$114 - $10 higher in real terms than it has ever been in the history of oil and that is even with throwing anything that will burn into the pot. Obviously supply is constrained by something other than price and demand is constrained BY price.

Here is a chart I scribbled out illustrating the theory there is an increasing floor to the price of oil but that there is also a ceiling to the price that the economy can afford to pay:




The faint orange line illustrates the idea that the economy will become weaker over time and instead of becoming inured to high prices it will actually be less able to afford the higher price and shrink to meet supply.



http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/07/13/plan-for-lower-growth-in-real-gdp-going-forward/


Considering that the world economy is flatlining at best, I'd say peak oil is moving along just as theorized.

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