Football
In reply to the discussion: It's official: Tom Brady is just flat out a better football player than Payton Manning. [View all]JonLP24
(29,385 posts)I meant as best since but may not be greatest ever or as great as them. Kaepernick & Brees has more experience against their D but they looked bad against them as well. Kaepernick went 13/28, 127 yards, 4.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 3 Ints (before I say more Kaepernick threw 11 picks this year - 5 to 5 different teams and 6 to the Seahawks).
Kaepernick was 15/29, 175 yards, 6.0 YPA, 1 TD - 1 INT. He was 19/36, 244 yards, 6.8 YPA, 1 TD - 1 INT in his match-up the season before.
Even if you include the playoff, he has been held well below his career and regular season averages in every matchup.
In Drew Brees' first matchup against the Seahawks he went 23/38, 147 yards, 3.8 YPA, 1 TD - 0 Int
Also you have to factor no-one is going to be mistake free on defense at all times as they were in the SB.
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The person's statistical analysis I trust most compared the defenses, he talks about the advantages and drawbacks of this comparison using the expected points added but when it comes football, he knows what kind of stats to toss in the garbage (YPC when running backs are often put in plays designed for short yardage and goalline situations so he created a Run Success Rate % state which is based more on if they run improved their down and distance - but third backs lead this category which has that as a drawback(Team SR% is more meaningful)) and what to use to start the conversation.
From what I can tell he comes to the same conclusion as you. They are probably the best defense since the 2009 New York Jets.
2013 Seahawks Defense: In the Conversation for Best Ever?
Back to the Seahawks. Their 2013 defensive EPA, including the entire postseason, was -5.9 points per game. (Negative numbers are good for defenses.) The 2000 Ravens' was -12.9, and the 2002 Bucs' was -10.6, both much better than SEA. But those are the raw EPA numbers, unadjusted for season.
When we adjust for season, things look a lot better for the L.O.B., but not that much. In fact, there are several defenses that come in ahead of Seattle's 2013 squad after adjusting for season. Besides the 2000 BAL squad and the 2002 TB squad, BAL '03, '06, and '08 all finish ahead of SEA. PIT '08 does as well. last year's CHI defense was only a hair behind, and the '09 NYJ defense is right there too. And this year's CIN defense wasn't very far behind SEA. To put things into perspective, the distance between the 2000 BAL defense and the 2013 SEA defense, accounting for era, is about the same as the difference between this year's SEA defense and this year's BUF defense, a very good group but not in the conversation for best ever.
Adjusting for season helps level the playing field, but it's still not completely fair to SEA. [As a Baltimore fan, I wanted to stop right there. But in fairness I had to take the next step.] The Seahawks faced a number of great offenses, including DEN (of course), NO (twice), ATL, IND, SF (3 times) and CAR. Accounting for strength of offensive schedule paints a different picture.
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BAL posted a -30 EPA vs NYG, holding their offense scoreless in the 2000 SB. Think about that for a second. That means the defense alone created 30 points of net score differential. TB posted -25 EPA vs OAK in the 2002 SB, but some of that was 'trash time' stuff. SEA notched just -16 EPA vs DEN, as its offense did the rest. Still, -16 is amazing against an offense that otherwise averaged +15 EPA per game.
It's just too bad we don't have the numbers prior to 1999. I'd love to see how defenses like the '85 Bears would rank, plus the 1914 Pottsville Maroons, and all the other great defenses I'm ignorant of. I'd also love to see how the sport as generally evolved across the decades.
Are the 2013 Seahawks defense the best ever? Of course not. Should they be in the conversation. Definitely not. Unless you're a sports talk radio host, then of course you put them in the conversation! Line 2, you're on the air...
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2014/02/2013-seahawks-defense-in-conversation.html