![Joe Biden Joe Biden](imgs/2020-avatar-120-biden.jpg)
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: The current state of the Biden-Sanders delegate math, explained [View all]JT45242
(3,119 posts)When Biden lost the first first two states a total of less than 2 percent of the delegates had been pledged and they were being split 5 ways so that no one was getting a large lead.
Now that 47% of the delegates have been cast and there are only two people left the math dictates a different response.
Unlike the electoral college, and a buunch of Republican primaries, the Democratic primaries give out proportional delegates. Currently it sits at about 858-702 not including the 130-ish delegates from the people who dropped out and endorsed Biden. Biden will likely get most of those is that 150 delegate lead is probably closer to 200 delegates.
There are 2300 delegates left and Bernie has to win by at least 201 delegates. So, Bernie would need to win on average by 54.5 to 45.6 in EVERY state along the way but that only work if the delegate were assigned by the whole state. They are assigned by precinct, etc. There was an interesting article about how few 'odd' districts are left, which makes it even harder to gain ground. So, for a district with 6 delegates, winning 54-46 would net each candidate 3 delegates and no movement. IN a 7 delegate district that would be a net one gain.
The math dictates the response -- it is like the old physics problem that says that you need to drive 60 miles in an hour. You are only able to go 30 mph for the first 30 miles. How fast would you need to drive to average 60 mph? The answer is -- you can't. The time is all used up.
That is the situation in the primaries. With every state that votes, the closer it is to mathematically impossible for Biden to be caught. Maybe if Bernie won New York by as much as Biden won Mississippi he would have a chance, but that is highly unlikely. Barring that Sanders will hover close to 200 delegates behind even if he narrowly wins every state from here to the end.
![](imgs/2020-avatar-120-undecided.jpg)
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
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