Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

JT45242

(3,119 posts)
29. Math difference ...
Fri Mar 13, 2020, 03:57 PM
Mar 2020

When Biden lost the first first two states a total of less than 2 percent of the delegates had been pledged and they were being split 5 ways so that no one was getting a large lead.

Now that 47% of the delegates have been cast and there are only two people left the math dictates a different response.

Unlike the electoral college, and a buunch of Republican primaries, the Democratic primaries give out proportional delegates. Currently it sits at about 858-702 not including the 130-ish delegates from the people who dropped out and endorsed Biden. Biden will likely get most of those is that 150 delegate lead is probably closer to 200 delegates.

There are 2300 delegates left and Bernie has to win by at least 201 delegates. So, Bernie would need to win on average by 54.5 to 45.6 in EVERY state along the way but that only work if the delegate were assigned by the whole state. They are assigned by precinct, etc. There was an interesting article about how few 'odd' districts are left, which makes it even harder to gain ground. So, for a district with 6 delegates, winning 54-46 would net each candidate 3 delegates and no movement. IN a 7 delegate district that would be a net one gain.

The math dictates the response -- it is like the old physics problem that says that you need to drive 60 miles in an hour. You are only able to go 30 mph for the first 30 miles. How fast would you need to drive to average 60 mph? The answer is -- you can't. The time is all used up.

That is the situation in the primaries. With every state that votes, the closer it is to mathematically impossible for Biden to be caught. Maybe if Bernie won New York by as much as Biden won Mississippi he would have a chance, but that is highly unlikely. Barring that Sanders will hover close to 200 delegates behind even if he narrowly wins every state from here to the end.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Helpful. Nobody told Biden to drop out when his campaign... polichick Mar 2020 #1
When was Biden's campaign dead in the water? George II Mar 2020 #2
When he high-tailed it out of NH. polichick Mar 2020 #4
Like BS "hig-tailed" it out of Mississippi? Cha Mar 2020 #8
The difference and point is that nobody asked Biden to drop out. polichick Mar 2020 #9
My point is.. BS "high-tailed" it out of Mississippi Cha Mar 2020 #10
As you can see, I answered a question. My point was made... polichick Mar 2020 #11
"High-tailed" it out of Mississippi.. and Went to Cha Mar 2020 #28
Biden was counted out some in the media said he wouldn't make it to Carolina...but Biden had no Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #21
+++ still_one Mar 2020 #26
Thank you... Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #31
What you said was exactly right still_one Mar 2020 #32
He "high-tailed it out of NH" as the voting was drawing to a close ON PRIMARY day.... George II Mar 2020 #24
Biden always had a path to victory with South Carolina in his back pocket... W_HAMILTON Mar 2020 #12
As the op points out, it ain't over yet... polichick Mar 2020 #14
I see your response didn't include a potential path for Sanders to win the nomination. W_HAMILTON Mar 2020 #18
I didn't expect Biden to drop out - or any of the others... polichick Mar 2020 #22
I'm not so sure that Bernie's staying in the race is helping Trump. totodeinhere Mar 2020 #25
At the time Sanders had won two small states...only one by double digits... Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #15
Math difference ... JT45242 Mar 2020 #29
I'm starting to think he has something else in mind besides winning delegates Just_Vote_Dem Mar 2020 #3
I hope so - he and his supporters need to do everything he/we can... polichick Mar 2020 #27
Nonsense n/t Just_Vote_Dem Mar 2020 #30
Good Luck on St Paddy's Day, Joe Biden! Cha Mar 2020 #5
Bernie has no path to the nomination. His campaign is done... SidDithers Mar 2020 #6
Does he have a path to depriving Biden of a first-ballot nomination? Frasier Balzov Mar 2020 #7
No, he almost assuredly doesn't. W_HAMILTON Mar 2020 #13
No he does not have a chance and if he did big fucking deal then Biden goes in on a second ballot no Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #17
He is behind in every one of the remaining 31 states/territories. EVERY ONE! George II Mar 2020 #20
Seems like winning California wasn't much help either. William769 Mar 2020 #16
It kept Tuesday night from being a total disaster. Even so, the delegate tally was 645-553. George II Mar 2020 #19
Understood. William769 Mar 2020 #23
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»The current state of the ...»Reply #29