****ARIZONA POLL**** Biden 50% Trump 42% Biden 51% Sanders 34%

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Trump's approval is all over the map in Arizona

I've seen the net anywhere from +1 to -11. This poll has -8, which is similar to another recent one at -6.

I think the truth would be closer to even among actual voters. The 2018 Arizona exit poll had Trump 50% approve 48% disapprove. His national approval number was lower then than today.

We're not leading by 8 points in Arizona. I don't mind dismissing any poll that makes no sense based on the ideological split.

However, the trend is more positive in our direction in Arizona than any other state. Texas and Georgia are still pipe dreams in the short term. Unless the conservative number drops to 38% range in 2020 I'll be surprised if we carry Arizona. But it is certainly possible, given the drop to 41% in 2016 then the remarkable drop to 40% in 2018, even though the liberal percentage plunged from 27% in 2016 to 22% in 2018.

Nobody really looks at that ideological split except myself and a few of my close friends from Las Vegas. I never really see any discussion on major political sites. Arizona is the strangest state I have ever reviewed along these lines. In 2016 it was the only state to simultaneously report more liberals and conservatives than the national average. I have never seen that in following the category since 1992. Then to plunge from 27% to 22% liberals in 2018 should have meant an uptick in conservatives to 42% range, following the trend of the rest of the nation given the older, more white and more conservative trend of midterms in relation to presidential years.

Since Arizona instead dropped to 40% conservatives in 2018 that gives me hope that our gains in that state are accelerating beyond what they were in Virginia, Nevada and Colorado. Those states all moved in predictable and mostly similar timetable. If we can push Arizona this time maybe we can flip it one cycle before my expectation, which was 2024. Arizona seniors 65+ actually voted for Sinema 50-48 according to exit polls. I remember being shocked at that number. For reference, Florida seniors buried Bill Nelson 57-43. Beto similarly lost seniors 58-42.

I'm normally not a huge believer in turnout. But it needs to be emphasized in Arizona. I'd say we are probably behind there, similar to Nevada behind before Harry Reid fortified the operation. Arizona is not as easy to rectify as Nevada (Clark County) but there are limited and easily identifiable areas in Arizona that can receive the high percentage of attention.