Trump releases his National Security Policy: US abandons Europe by 2027, turns to Russia; blocks immigration

[Emrys]

28. You'd hope so

The problem's been that European governments have been so relieved whenever a relatively humane and reasonable US government has come along, memories of the downsides of their relationships with the US have been short, so they've all been caught somewhat by surprise by the extremity of the recent turns in US policy.

The UK is especially vulnerable because after Brexit - and fulfilling the fears of many of us who opposed it - the government's declared policy has been to seek even greater reliance on the US for trade etc. Witness how sickeningly Starmer sucked up to Trump in the Oval Office. It's also reliant on the US for support of it's supposed "independent" nuclear deterrent, unlike the French who managed to gain access to covert support from the Americans for the development of their force de frappe without becoming beholden to the whims of US policy. I'm not sure I hold out much hope for Starmer making moves that I'd see as productive, like biting the bullet and seeking greater reintegration with the EU in any serious terms.

The war in Ukraine has done much to draw the European partners together in a common cause in a way that wouldn't have happened in peacetime, and it's remarkable how few tensions and splits there have been between EU and NATO members other than the US given the pressures and problems Russia and Trump have thrown up.

I'd hope they've finally learned their lesson and will seek progressively greater independence in foreign policy and defence that will stand no matter what happens on the US scene in future.

Supposedly that would be in agreement with this security plan, but ironically, already US diplomats have been squawking loudly that the Europeans are seeking to invest in and develop their own arms industries rather than buying from the US, which under Trump evidently wants to have its cake and eat it.

During the PNAC years, things looked pretty bleak and they arrogantly boasted they were creating reality while others stood around dumfounded trying to play catch-up. Things didn't pan out as its perpetrators wished - indeed, some of the PNAC's champions are nowadays ardent anti-Trumpers - but they did great harm before the PNAC eventually petered out in conflicts that are still unresolved but look more like an almighty mess than the result of any grand plan.

Since this security plan has yet to even be put before either House, I'd hope all is not lost yet. But NATO and Europe, including the UK, have to change whatever happens. You'd hope the Trump era would be a once-in-a-lifetime disaster that will run its course and eventually fail, but it would be foolish to bet on that.